Gunshots echoed in the forest, and Belarusian soldiers fired warning shots to drive away frightened asylum-seekers from Iraq and Syria seeking assistance. Along the border, the Polish and Belarusian armies watched each other vigilantly through the barbed wire. In the evening, Polish guards said they were blinded by the eyes of Belarusians waving flashing lights and lasers as the migrants sneaked past.
Asylum seekers described the hellish conditions of forests and makeshift campsites, where they cut branches to obtain firewood and ration water to survive.The body of a young Syrian Found in the forest In Poland on Friday, at least the ninth person died this year. Others were beaten by attackers and thieves waiting in the forest.
This is the chaos on the eastern border of Europe in 2021. In the past year, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, went from a nuisance to an international pariah to a nemesis.His biggest bet so far is Plan a new immigration crisis On the borders of the European Union, the despair of thousands of people was used to retaliate against Brussels’ sanctions against its regime.
He believes that by escalating this crisis to the level of a humanitarian disaster, he can force the European Union to set the negotiating table. In his most exaggerated comments, he even threatened that his ally Russia might be involved in a border conflict with Russia. Europe.
“He is not afraid of death at the border,” A panel of experts said Last week from the European Council on Foreign Relations. “For him, this is about revenge, about the survival of the regime-it means that he is ready to escalate further and seek Russian support in the process.”
Lukashenko’s top supporters seem to be hesitant to his most aggressive threat. Saturday, Vladimir Putin It is said that Lukashenko was speaking out of place when he threatened to cut off Russia’s gas supply to Europe.
“The first time I heard about this… he didn’t even make this suggestion to me,” Putin said in his first public speech about the crisis, because of a column of more than 1,000 immigrants. Many of them are Iraqi Kurds who came to the border last week. “In theory, he can do this, but there is no benefit.”
Putin also kept Russia away from the crisis, possibly focusing on EU sanctions Set as target Belarus And the airline that flew migrants from the Middle East this week.
Putin said in an interview: “I hope everyone knows that we have nothing to do with this matter.” Moscow. Kremlin.Putin, Mainly about his show. “Everyone is trying to reallocate some responsibilities to us under any circumstances or no cases at all. But none of our airlines transported these people.”
Europeans, especially Ukrainians, have heard such denials before. Since 2014, Russia It has repeatedly claimed that it has nothing to do with the conflict in southeastern Ukraine, although there is ample evidence that the Russian army fought and died there, and that Russia sent funds, personnel and materials to arm its agents.
Now, as the main supporter of Belarus in the conflict with the European Union, Moscow is adopting a similar strategy: trying to initiate negotiations between Minsk and European countries, especially Germany, while playing the role of an unselfish party. Few people buy this.
In response to Putin’s comments, Lithuania’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense Linas Linkmains said: “It’s like they have nothing to do with the Green Man in Crimea.” The outgoing German Chancellor Angela Moore Kerr, Call Putin last week Tell him to influence the regime in Minsk. The Polish Prime Minister has authorized extreme and controversial measures to drive migrants out of the border, and he accused Putin of “planning” the immigration crisis.
The signal from Russia is not encouraging. In the past week, US officials have warned that Russia will carry out a new build-up, with tanks, artillery, and even short-range ballistic missiles entering the border area with Ukraine and Belarus. If it does not indicate an imminent invasion, then unusual military activity means that if Russia decides to send a large force across the border, it can mobilize quickly.
“Our concern is that Russia may make a serious mistake and try to repeat its mistakes of 2014, when it assembled its troops along the border, entered Ukrainian sovereign territory, and falsely claimed to be provoked,” U.S. Secretary of State Anthony A. Blinken said on Wednesday.
At the same time, Russia this week deployed paratroopers and nuclear-capable bombers to Belarus for training exercises to demonstrate its continued support for Minsk. On Friday, Russia sent two bombers to the North Sea, where the Royal Air Force had to dispatch fighter jets to intercept them.
“The military and political situation in Europe is deteriorating. The NATO military build-up near the Russian border is still continuing,” a deputy of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said during talks in Paris this week. Putin also complained about the recent NATO exercises in the Black Sea and Ukraine’s use of Turkish drones in eastern Ukraine.
The increasingly tense situation between East and West makes Lukashenko very satisfied, and he pinned his hopes on Russia’s support. He said last week: “We know, God bless, if we make some mistakes, if we fall, it will immediately drag Russia into this vortex, and this is the largest nuclear country.”
However, in order to turn himself into one of Europe’s biggest threats, the former Belarusian agricultural boss is playing a dangerous game. The new European sanctions may target airlines and even Minsk Airport and are expected to further isolate Belarus. Even Lukashenko’s staunch opponents questioned whether his Kremlin support was unconditional.Franak Viačorka, an adviser to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, talks about Lukashenko’s threat to cut off gas to Europe When supplying, he said: “Foreseeable, he didn’t consult the Kremlin. He wanted to hide behind [Russia]The border crisis will be resolved by abolishing the dictatorship in Minsk. “
