Is Europe moving away from soft power? – EURACTIV.com

Welcome to the EURACTIV Global Europe Newsletter, which is your weekly update of the European Union from a global perspective.

You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here.

In this week’s version: The EU’s shiny new strategic compass and others, the Belarusian sanctions and Ukraine have become the focus.

///

“Europe is in danger”, the era of the EU as soft power is over, EU Chief Diplomat Joseph Borrell Announce This week, he previewed the EU’s latest geopolitical efforts.

“In a world where everything can be turned into a weapon, it is not enough to pretend that we can be a soft power,” Borel said, referring to the crisis on the EU-Belarus border, which will once again show that the challenge has always been global. , Europe can only solve it together.

If anything, Afghanistan has emphasized that in its current state, Europe is militarily unable to deal with the crisis alone. Second, he warned that global geopolitical participants are slowly beginning to realize this.

Over the past year and a half, his team has negotiated with member states to formulate a blueprint for the EU’s future military strategy.

Speaking of the “return of power politics,” Borrell painted a picture of the EU’s need to strengthen its response to new threats, preferably with stronger military capabilities, new partnerships, and better crisis management.

Draft seen by EURACTIV Including a series of new methods and means to enhance the ability to deal with mixed threats, including a commitment to create an EU rapid mixed response team, ensure cyber deterrence, and respond to space risks and incidents.

“The classic distinction between war and peace is becoming more and more difficult,” Borrell said.

Since the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Lein announced her “Geopolitical Committee” at the beginning of her term, changes in language and attitudes have been slowly approaching. This is the first time that actual ambitions have been put on paper.

Most proposals have ambitious deadlines. However, many EU diplomats and experts believe that the current 29-page draft proposal is mixed-some are too ambitious and some are not deep enough.

“Because the envisaged time frame is quite limited, the target date for most proposals is 2025, so whether the compass should guide EU agency ships to take immediate short-term actions is still inconclusive,” European security and defense expert Raluca Csernatoni Carnegie Europe told EURACTIV .

So, how much bandwidth does the ambitious military doctrine plan of the 2030s or 2040s have?

“Opponents will grasp the fact that the document is just another technocratic exercise, with little impact on the mixed threats and severe military challenges facing the EU,” Cernatoni said.

“In fact, the EU’s security and defense trend is to stick to proven facts, such as the lowest common denominator consensus decision among all the 27 EU member states and the temporary decision in CFSP and CSDP,” she added. .

It is worth noting that the discussion on the EU’s rapid response mechanism (a 5,000-man force seems to be the flagship of the new strategy) has exposed the typical European chicken and egg problems. What should be first, the “tool” or the mechanism and decision-making process for using it?

“The big question is, if a new rapid response capability is really created, will member states be more willing to use it than using battle groups,” said Niklas Novaky, EU security and defense researcher At tThe Wilfrid Martens Center told EURACTIV.

Another unresolved question is whether, in the long run, the EU’s new strategy will become a new stimulus for EU-US-NATO relations.

When speaking to reporters in Brussels, Borrell insisted on seeing this concept instead of going into the direction of “strategic responsibility”, and to a large extent avoided using the shiny “strategic autonomy” slogan criticized by Washington and NATO of the European Union.

“I expect the United States will welcome rapid response capabilities if it ultimately improves the EU’s ability to manage crises in its neighbors, especially those that have no direct interest in the United States,” Novaki said.

“In general, the United States welcomes Europe’s willingness to take more responsibility for its own security, because Washington wants to focus its attention and resources on the Indo-Pacific region,” he added.

When the EU foreign ministers and defense ministers discuss these proposals early next week, including at a lunch meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, they will first show how tense the new proposals are.

The document may be adopted by EU leaders during the French presidency in March next year.

The EU’s chief diplomat must now negotiate a middle ground among member states eager to add some of the priorities or missing links they might see to the document. An EU diplomat jokingly described the next step as “the Christmas tree approach of the member states, coupled with the lack of strategic imagination on the EU side”.

In the final analysis, this will depend on the political will of the member states.

Borrell made it clear that he regrets that he continues to explain the threat through the perspective of major countries, which depends on the geographical and historical status of each country, rather than the threat to the entire EU.

The bottom line outside the proposal seems to be whether Europeans can find a common “strategic culture.”

For more in-depth understanding, please read our report on the upcoming document here:

And an interview with the EU’s chief diplomat:

EU in the world

Sanctions are coming| EU diplomats confirmed to EURACTIV over the weekend that the EU is considering imposing comprehensive sanctions on Belarusian officials due to the escalating border confrontation with Minsk. The latest draft that the EU foreign minister will consider on Monday also includes Minsk Airport (although it is not clear how to turn this into practice) and hotels for hosting refugees.

In the past few days, due to increased tensions on the border between Poland and Belarus, the EU’s language towards Belarus has escalated. rise, Accused the strongman Alexander Lukashenko earlier this week ‘Inhumane, gang-style practices’ Seduced immigrants under false promises of easy entry into the EU.

The EU executive also stated that the EU executive has also established contacts with a number of airlines in an effort to cut off easy immigration routes in Minsk because several airlines Confirm that they will restrict certain practices This may facilitate human trafficking.

COP26 out The UN climate talks ended on Saturday night with a “compromise” agreement that for the first time made fossil fuels the main driver of global warming, even if coal-dependent countries raised objections at the last minute.But the Promise not enough Limit the temperature rise to 1.5C.

Zoom in latest

Deadly polls| Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said during his visit to the region that the results of the Bulgarian election this weekend will affect the pace of Albania and North Macedonia’s accession to the European Union. We checked the latest situation here.

Balkan Union | The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) members of the Greek New Democracy Party and the VMRO Party of North Macedonia rejected the struggling solution to resolve the long-standing name dispute between the two countries when they opposed it. What’s the difference in being in power.

At the same time, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia Zoran Zaev (Zoran Zaev) announced in a local vote last month that he had resigned due to poor election results. Will continue to work Until the political situation stabilizes.

Eurasian Digest

The media was killed| Ukraine’s oldest English-language newspaper, the “Kiev Post”, suddenly closed, and staff described it as “retaliation” by the owner of the publication. Staff condemns “retaliation” By the owner of the paper.

Ukrainian war | this U.S. warns Russia It opposes another “serious mistake” committed against Ukraine when it seeks to clarify the movement of troops near the border. Ukraine’s top diplomat, Dmytro Kuleba, will arrive in Brussels on Monday for a diplomatic offensive to ensure EU and NATO guarantees.

Commemorate | Commemoration, Russia’s oldest human rights organization, said that the Supreme Court of Russia notified it that the prosecutor had requested the dissolution of the organization because the organization systematically violated the “foreign agent” legislation. Lament in one step It is regarded by the European Commission and the European Commission as a “destructive blow” to the country’s civil society.