Sunday, August 2, 2026

A result that Johnson did not foresee for Brexit: Bringing the Irish closer | International Trade


A generationThis should be an agreement that the British Prime Minister will never agree to, the Irish maritime border between Britain and Ireland Northern IrelandHalf a year later, Boris Johnson did so, while denying the fact that the economic consequences are becoming more and more obvious.

Statistics released by the Irish government last week It shows that the political turmoil caused by Johnson’s signing of the Northern Ireland Agreement may have a heavy blow to British trade. The data shows that evidence of deeper economic solidarity has begun to appear on the island of Ireland, while transportation between the UK and Northern Ireland has been interrupted due to the Brexit border inspection, and the Prime Minister promised that it will never happen.

And the north Ireland As a member of the EU single market, the value of goods shipped to the Republic soared to 1.8 billion euros (1.5 billion pounds) in the first six months of 2021, an increase of 77% over the same period in 2020. During the same period, exports of Irish goods to the region increased by 40%, reaching nearly 1.6 billion euros.

At the same time, for the first time in 40 years, the UK was fully affected by the border inspections of the European Union, and trade fell accordingly. Exports to Ireland fell by 32% in the first six months Brexit, While sales of Irish goods in the other direction increased by 20%, indicating that the republic did not suffer the same losses as its largest trading partner feared.

At this stage, it is difficult to conclude that withdrawing from the EU and Northern Ireland agreement will have a lasting impact on trade flows around the British Isles. The coronavirus pandemic is having a major impact, and it is difficult to isolate the impact of Brexit as companies adapt to the new rules in a time of constant change.

Official UK trade statistics show that after the sharp decline in trade in January, as the impact of Brexit and the new crown epidemic has weakened, imports and exports with EU countries have been steadily climbing to near normal levels.

However, early evidence still disturbs the government. If this situation continues, Northern Ireland’s deepening economic ties with the Republic — and weaker economic ties with the British mainland — will raise questions about the region’s relations with the rest of the UK. This is a question that unionist politicians will certainly continue to raise.

More importantly, serious questions should be asked about the well-informedness of the political debate in the UK. There are no official British government data on trade between the UK and Northern Ireland-at least not in public form. For trade between the region and the Republic, the latest UK government data is 2019.

Embarrassingly, the data released by Dublin provides the best insight. Without official data to inform the debate, Britain must move on in the dark.

Although most of the damage from Brexit was self-inflicted, the Irish snapshot does show that another imbalance is at work due to Brussels’ actions.

British exporters have been hit harder by Brexit as they face border inspections when shipping to the EU from January 1st, while Irish and EU-to-UK exporters have benefited from the UK government’s choice of more than 12 months The phased inspection method during the transition period.

Proponents of Brexit will seize this lack of return, and Irish trade data prove its impact. However, our departure from the European Union was implemented at the instigation of London and in accordance with the terms agreed to by the Johnson government, who hurriedly told tired voters that he would “complete Brexit.”

In October, the United Kingdom will conduct new inspections on animal-derived products imported from the European Union, and then implement 100% inspections from January.

British retailers worry that as the country recovers from the pandemic, the additional cost of the system will make the situation worse, thereby exacerbating global supply chain problems and a shortage of truck drivers. Ministers must take more active measures to solve these problems.

Should the UK bet on blue hydrogen or green hydrogen?

There is a new energy competition in the town, and it looks strangely familiar. It has been ten years since the energy industry was broken by the seemingly binary choice between fossil natural gas and renewable energy.Last week, the government seemed to have rekindled its old enemies The long-awaited hydrogen strategy.

In the early 2010s, those who called on the government to support hydraulic fracturing to promote self-reliance in new energy were strongly opposed. They believed that onshore wind turbines were the key to a cleaner and brighter future. Neither of them wanted each other to appear in their backyards.

Today’s focus is on hydrogen, a clean-burning gas that is essential to replace fossil gas in heavy-duty transportation, factories, and refineries. But how to produce it? Once again, choose between fossil gas and renewable energy-“blue hydrogen” derived from the former or more sustainable “green hydrogen”.

Whitehall’s desire to play down the competition and seems to avoid making any choices makes climate activists angry, they say Blue hydrogen – Extracting from fossil gases and using capture technology to capture most (but not all) emissions – may lock the UK into fossil fuels for longer than the climate can withstand.

Blue hydrogen can reduce fossil gas emissions by 85% to 95%, but it cannot completely eliminate them. Green hydrogen is made from water and renewable energy, leaving only oxygen.On the road to net zero, the winner should be clear, but so far green hydrogen has not been captured The minds, thoughts or spreadsheets of officials of the Ministry of Finance.

If it is to be proved that it can reach the required scale, the green hydrogen industry, which is booming by different small companies, has a mountain that needs to be climbed compared to the major oil giant behind the proposed blue hydrogen project.

But the government should consider the results of the last discord. Fracturing technology has never started, but despite David Cameron (David Cameron) Cracking down on onshore wind power subsidiesThe renewable energy industry has consistently exceeded expectations, and green hydrogen can do the same.

As bidding increases, Morrison has more things to do

Every bit helps. “Well, anyway, this is the mantra of Sir Terry Leahy when he runs Tesco. These days, he seems to prefer Morrison, Because he is facing a £7 billion acquisition of Bradford supermarket chain by US private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice.

Last week, CD&R attacked rival Fortress 300 million pounds additional investmentAt a price of 285 pence per share, it offered a compelling premium that was 60% higher than the stock price of the grocery store before the bidding began.

At this level, shareholders may be forgiven for turning their heads. In fact, in a recent report, Shore Capital analyst Clive Black stated that if the City of London did not realize the actual value of the unpopular UK supermarket stocks, it would not be the implication that the stock exchange might not have stocks in the end. Fantasy. Considering that Tesco and Sainsbury’s still exist, this is a good proposition.

If CD&R wins control and, as some commentators have suggested, let Leahy be chairman, he will be reunited with his former Tesco colleague David Potts, who has been in Morrisons for six years. That is, the task of delivering goods for a new set of shareholder task leaders will begin, and Potts expects-based on the amount paid-to begin to provide better financial performance.

When CD&R took over a company, it closed the door to some common get rich quick plans deployed by private equity firms. Its long list of commitments includes a promise not to engage in any “leaseback transactions for material stores.” However, urban observers know that the promises made in the bidding war may be empty.

The higher the price-Fortress is now “considering its options” and hopes shareholders will sit down-the final transaction may involve more leverage. But in the end, Morrisons will still be the fourth largest supermarket in the UK, and there is still a mountain to climb.



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