Comment by Rick Stryker Wrote confidently on August 20, 2020:
If I am right, then our total death toll will reach 368K.
As of the official form of Covid-19 death toll released by the CDC on 13 12, 2021, the cumulative death toll for the week ending November 27 was 793.834, slightly more than 368,000.
Since data for the most recent weeks is often incomplete, it is useful to use a table as of a few weeks ago. I use the week that ends on 11/6 to end watchmaking. Then the total official death toll is 775,398, and the cumulative total death toll is 871994.
figure 1: The number of deaths per week due to Covid-19 (black) reported to the CDC within a few weeks of the end of the specified date. The excess deaths are calculated as actual minus expected (cyan). Note that for early observations where expectations exceed actuals, the number of excess deaths is zero. Light green shading indicates CDC data that may be modified. source: CDC The year 12/13/2021, and the author’s calculations.
CDC’s latest overall forecast shows that in the next four weeks, there will be more than 10,000 deaths every week, and by January 1, 2022, the cumulative death toll will reach approximately 825,000.
source: CDC, Released on June 12, 2021.
