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HomeEconomyBack to the real economy: Business cycle indicators, mid-March

Back to the real economy: Business cycle indicators, mid-March

For Industrial Production in February, we have a picture of key indicators below, followed by NBER BCDC, and S&P Market Intelligence monthly GDP.

figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), March 17 Bloomberg consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding 2012 Chinese transfers (green), manufacturing Industry and Trade Sales Ch.2012 USD (black), Ch.2012 USD Consumption (light blue) and Ch.2012 USD Monthly GDP (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 via FRED 2nd Edition, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published March 1, 2023), and authors’ calculations.

The weekly economic indicator (Lewis-Mertens-Stock), with data available as of March 11, showed growth of 0.96% year-on-year. gross domestic product As of yesterday, Q1 SAAR was up 3.2% q/q, while S&P Market Intelligence/formerly IHS Markit has raised its tracker forecast to 0.6% (q/q SAAR) from -0.5% a month ago.

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