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Before and after the comprehensive revision of economic cycle indicators


The BEA’s comprehensive revision, combined with August data, changes the economic cycle picture. The decline in personal income, net of transfers, and sales in manufacturing and trading appears to be much larger in the first half of 2022.

One is the outlook before a full revision (but incorporating preliminary revisions to employment benchmarks).

figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment included in preliminary benchmark (dark blue), suggesting September NFP included in Bloomberg 9/27 consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 personal income excluding transfers (green), Manufacturing and trade sales $ in 2012 (black), Consumption $ in 2012 (light blue), Monthly GDP $ in 2012 (pink), GDP (blue bars), all logarithms Normalized to 2021M11 =0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 released for the second time through FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release) and the author’s calculations.

This is the modified picture:

figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment included in preliminary benchmark (dark blue), suggesting September NFP included in Bloomberg 9/27 consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding transfers (green), Manufacturing and trade sales $ in 2017 (black), Consumption $ in 2017 (light blue), Monthly GDP $ in 2012 (pink), GDP (blue bars), all logarithms Normalized to M11=0 in 2021. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFed, BEA and Census (via FRED), BEA 2023Q2 Version 3 (via FRED), S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release) and the author’s calculations.

All in all, while personal income and manufacturing and trading sales fell more sharply in the first half of 2022, subsequent growth in these series (particularly income) now looks stronger.



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