As of today:
figure 1: GDP (bold blue), GDI (green), GDO (orange), GDO+ (red), GDPNow on 9/29 (light blue square), New York Federal Reserve Bank’s real-time forecast as of 9/29 (pink triangle), St. Louis Federal Reserve news index as of 9/28 (inverted purple triangle), Goldman Sachs tracking index as of 9/29 (yellow green +), all units are 1 billion. Link 2012$SAAR. GDP+ is based on 2019 GDP levels. Source: Bank of East Asia Q2 2023 Third Release/Full Revision, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.
GDP+ is now closer to GDP than the pre-revision data (see this postal used to compare levels before and after comprehensive revision). All immediate forecasts listed in Figure 1 point to continued growth in the third quarter.
Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Using data as of 9/232, the annual increase is 1.89%. As of the week ended May 13, the ratio was as low as 0.74%.
