In the Western Balkans, the “brain drain” has become a tragedy, and many young people there have dreams of living and working abroad. But the brain drain is real, what impact does it have?
This phrase refers to the immigration of a well-trained or qualified individual from one country to another. In the Western Balkans, it reflects the way thousands, usually young people, go to EU countries for further studies or work.
But Janos Ammann, economics editor at EURACTIV.com, doesn’t think this is necessarily a bad thing.
Is brain drain real?
“In academia, brain drain is a controversial concept because it is only one aspect of highly skilled labor migration. But this type of migration also provides opportunities. One obvious opportunity is that the immigrants themselves may earn higher income. But immigrants They also benefit their country in other ways by sending money back to their home countries,” he said.
Although this may be the case in some cases, not all immigrants send money home, and many remittances come from second, third, and fourth-generation family members abroad.
In addition, there is no clear pattern between the EU and non-EU Western Balkan countries in terms of the amount of refund.
For example, Some countries have relatively low figures, such as 3.4% in non-EU North Macedonia, or 3% in Romania, a member of the European Union.
At the middle level are Serbia (7.3%) and EU member Croatia (7.1%).
The figures for non-EU countries Montenegro (12.6%), Kosovo (18.9%) and Albania (9.9%) are much higher, while Bulgaria’s only 1.4%. Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and remains its poorest member .
These figures show that in some cases, the brain drain can indeed be offset by remittances, but it cannot be fully offset.
What is the situation in the candidate countries?
In the early 1990s, thousands of Albanians left the country for Italy, Germany, the United States, Switzerland and neighboring Greece. There are more than 4.5 million Albanians outside Albania, and only 2.8 million are left.
According to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Albania ranks fourth in the world in terms of immigration of highly skilled talents. As many as 83% want to leave, and nearly half are actively trying to apply for a visa or find a job.
The number of immigrants has dropped slightly, but this may be because most of the people who could have left have already left. This is also due to the aging population and low birth rate. The United Nations recommends that if current trends continue, Albania’s population may only be 1.9 million by 2100.
Economic pressure has already emerged. Many Albanians do not want to engage in manual labor, while other jobs, such as nursing and teaching, are prohibitive. Those who were educated and aspiring left in droves, and many did not return.
After receiving free education, Albanians will leave and no longer go through the social security and tax rebate system. This may significantly affect the sustainability of pensions and benefits and the continuation of free healthcare and education.
Serbia has a similar story. A survey released by the Serbian National Youth Council in August found that 50% of young people want to immigrate and 25% of young people are in the planning stage.
Vladamir Tintor of EURACTIV.rs stated that the main reason for wanting to leave is the desire to live a more dignified lifestyle and a higher standard of living
“The government’s economic immigration strategy estimates that between 2007 and 2019, about 500,000 people left the country, and 30,000 to 60,000 people leave each year. Most people went to Germany, then Austria and Slovenia,” he said.
On the border of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia and Herzegovina), data from the 2019 Labour Force Survey of the Statistical Office show that between 2013 and 2019, approximately 530,000 people left the country.
In many cases, those who left also gave up their citizenship. Zeljko Trkanjec, EURACTIV correspondent in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, pointed out that nearly 85,000 people have done so since the end of the war in 1995.
As a young man explained to Trkanjec, “Here, they don’t recognize enough education or diplomas. It’s difficult to find a job in your career that has normal working conditions, good pay, affordable bills, and a good life. work”,
The consequences may be severe, but Turkanyets believes that the government has little incentive to implement changes.
“The main interest of politicians is to defend their position. Educated people are leaving, so they are more likely to govern. Those with a lower level of education are more likely to succumb to nationalist rhetoric,” he said.
Who have been there before?
Croatia joined the European Union in 2013, but before that, people left in large numbers to look for opportunities abroad. Trkanjec explained that since the 1960s, Croats have worked regularly Before returning to China, he worked as a guest worker in Italy, Austria and Germany. However, when Croatia joined the European Union in 2013, the situation changed.
“Croatia has faced an exodus from the moment it became a member of the European Union. Many young people have left with the whole family, which is a big problem for demographics,” said Trkanjec.
It is currently estimated that at least 350,000 people have left, equivalent to 9% of the population. In terms of the number of people in the labor market, this may be as high as 20%.
This has caused some problems, including a lack of qualified nurses.
When Bulgaria joined the European Union from 1990 to 2007, an estimated 60,000 people left each year. Since joining the European Union, this number has declined as the country’s economy has grown.
Quoted figures Financial Times Data for 2018 shows that there are about 30,000 people, and 10,000 people return every year. However, there is a problem with low fertility, which Krassen Nikolov from EURACTIV, Bulgaria describes as a “demographic disaster”.
“For several years, Bulgaria has formulated relevant strategies, but has not taken any action. The impact is huge-the loss of foreign investors due to labor shortages and long-term economic growth problems,” he said.
At the same time, Romania, the largest country in the region, with a population of 19 million, Since the fall of communism in 1989, the population has been declining, but this trend only accelerated after joining the European Union in 2007.
Official data show that from 1990 to the end of 2020, there was a decrease of about 4 million. Eurostat reports that more than one-fifth of the country’s active labor force lives in another European Union country-according to reports, this is the largest group of expatriates in Europe and the fifth largest group of expatriates in the world. To the OECD.
Bogdan Neagu from EURACTIV Romania said: “Most immigrants have low levels of education and work in non-skilled sectors, especially in Italy and Spain. However, high-skilled workers including IT and healthcare professionals have also left in large numbers. And it had major consequences.”
Due to the lack of qualified employees, the development of key industries is hindered. The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted this problem, as many areas do not have enough medical staff and are short of tens of thousands.
“Of the 231,000 employees in the Romanian healthcare system, 14,000 are doctors. According to the National Health Care Alliance Sanitas, this is the same number of doctors who left between 2009 and 2015. 28,000 nurses left during the same period,” he Say.
As Carnegie Europe in an article Research notes In March of this year, the EU, as the main beneficiary of the brain drain in the region, should consider “policies that simultaneously address both pushing and pulling factors, such as compulsory labor importing countries to compensate the true cost of talent exports from source countries.”
“An EU that is serious about joining must assume the responsibility of the main beneficiaries of the brain drain in the Western Balkans and share the burden of finding solutions.”
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]
