With the release of the employment data, and the monthly GDP from the SPGMI, we can see the following key macro indicators.
figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of Aug. 31 (assuming no revisions to prior months) (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2012 Personal income $ excluding transfers (green), manufacturing and trade sales $ in 2012 (black), consumption $ in 2012 (light blue), monthly GDP $ in 2012 (pink), GDP (blue article), the GDPNow in the second quarter of 2023 is 8/31, and all logs are normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 Second release via FRED, atlanta fed, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
Knowing how the BLS will “hedge” the downward revision of 306K in March 2023 as the initial benchmarks are established, the best guess for the current NFP series is revised down slightly, but doesn’t really change the picture for continued growth.
figure 2: Non-farm payrolls, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of Aug. 31 (assuming no revisions to prior months) (blue+), implied preliminary benchmark NFP (bold teal), civilian Employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers 2012 dollars (green), manufacturing and trade sales 2012 dollars (black), consumption 2012 dollars (light blue), and 2012 monthly GDP USD (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Bureau of Labor StatisticsFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 Second release by FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (Nigeria Macroeconomic Consultant, IHS Markit) (9/1/2023 release) and the authors’ calculations.
