February 16, 2024
as i was Last week reviewI have been kicking myself for selling SMCI too early. So it was already on my radar. I also see it every night when I have my scan because I always look parabolic ascending scan. I mostly track parabolic runners for short candidates, but sometimes, as you'll see below, for long candidates. Parabolic shorts are some of my favorite trades, but they are tricky to execute…I enjoy grabbing profits quickly and running away before the profits bounce back.
The few days in a row I see SMCI there, the more I think it should go lower. A few days ago, when the price topped $800, I texted a friend and said “I guess they're going to raise the price to $1,000.” Yesterday, the $1,000 level was touched and broken. that is A nice round number, these numbers can often act as support or resistance. Several analysts yesterday and today also gave me courage, with price targets of 960 and 1040.
So when I see SMCI gapping up again I *have* to try shorting it. I hit it for $1,064. i have one mental cessation It's just over $1,100, but my plan is to hold on until the afternoon. I'm ready for it to spike, but I'm pretty confident that *they* won't be able to push it higher without a decent pullback first. Excellently, I'm almost at the top! I sold at 9:36 for $1,064.68 per share. It went as high as $1,077 a few minutes after I went short, but then it flipped hard and never looked back
I closed half of my position at 10:05 @ 886.76 and the other half at 828.10 after the price dropped in the afternoon.
That trade netted me almost 6x my initial risk (6R) and helped push my year-to-date return to 26.5%
That's why the rest of the previous week was so frustrating. I held a few positions over the weekend but they didn't do much at all. I initiated a few other trades with little success. But I passed on a deal in HOLO that would be a huge winner.
While it didn't trigger the entry in the next session, it did bring the calm back after the storm:
I remember seeing it that night and thinking it seemed like it was really ready to push higher again. But then I looked at the company description and realized it was a Chinese company. Many Chinese stocks had crazy moves and were suspended, and I decided I didn't want to risk being HOLOed by a suspension. Today I felt I needed to rethink my approach. Maybe I should still go with these settings, but in a smaller size.
My other setbacks this week were due to two failed trades in NNOX. I commented yesterday morning When I see it's notched:
Well…my NNOX saga continues. I bought on Monday, but got wiped out on Tuesday as the market pulled back. The stock is set to rise 70% this morning following news of NVDA's investment in NNOX. 🤦♂️🤷♂️
Maybe today it will give me another place to jump into. NVDA's involvement is likely to bring a lot of hype to it
Here is a chart showing two of my trades:
It's really frustrating though I do feel happy that I'm “fishing in the right pond.” I just need to tighten up my execution a little bit. A better/different stop loss position would have kept me in the original trade and I would have made approximately 100% of the gain on NNOX. If it weren't for these mismanagement and missed trades, my account would probably be up 50% or 60% year to date.
