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Economic cycle indicators ahead of January employment status release

The SPGMI GDP monthly annualized growth rate surged to 12.2% in December, compared with 9.8% in November.

figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment is included in the preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), using Bloomberg consensus implied levels as of February 1 (blue+), civilian employment (orange), and industrial production (red), excluding 2017 Personal income on current transfers $ (bold green), Manufacturing and trade sales $ in 2017 (black), Consumption $ in 2017 (light blue), Monthly GDP $ in 2017 (pink), GDP third release ( Blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of February 1 (lavender box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Edition, contains comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (2/1/Published in 2024) and the author's calculations.

from SPGMI

Following a growth of 0.8% in November, GDP grew by 1.0% in December, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. December's strong growth was mainly due to solid growth in personal consumption expenditures, a substantial acceleration in the pace of non-agricultural inventory construction, and growth in net exports.

Final sales growth in November and December were 7.0% and 7.9% respectively (quarterly AR).

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