The number of employees in July was freed Nowadays.
Non-agricultural employment and forecast for August 2021:
figure 1: Wisconsin’s non-agricultural employment numbers released in July (blue), forecasts for the economic outlook for July 2021, released in August (cyan squares), all are 000, seasonally adjusted. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray.Source: BLS, DWD and Wisconsin State Revenue Service.
The number of non-agricultural employment in June was slightly lower than the DoR’s forecast for the second quarter, but it grew rapidly at an annualized growth rate of 5.6%. 4.6% is slower than the national 8.0%. Compared with the national peak in 2020M02, the number of non-agricultural employment in WIsconsin fell by 3.8% as of July, compared with 3.7% nationwide.
The duality of recovery still exists, and employment in high-touch service industries is still more sluggish than employment in commodity production. The recovery in leisure and hospitality appears to have stalled (based on seasonally adjusted figures), while manufacturing employment has resumed growth.
figure 2: The Wisconsin manufacturing employment data release (blue) and the July forecast released in August by the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (cyan square) are both in units of 000, seasonally adjusted. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray.Source: BLS, DWD and Wisconsin State Revenue Service.
image 3: Wisconsin’s hotels and leisure (blue) and the Wisconsin Economic Outlook’s July forecast (cyan squares) released in August are all seasonally adjusted in units of 000. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin State Revenue Service.
Employment in the manufacturing sector was 0.6% lower than the level in February 2020, while employment in leisure and hotel services fell by 17.2% (seasonally adjusted).
Why does leisure and hospitality service employment seem to be stagnating? From the DWD version:
“Despite the emergence of Delta Variant, Wisconsin employment continues to show growth,” said Amy Pechacek, DWD secretary designee. “For individuals who are still looking for work, I encourage you to visit JobCenterofWisconsin.com and learn more about the thousands of high-paying jobs currently available, and encourage all individuals who are eligible to be vaccinated to better protect themselves from COVID-19 and changes. body.”
As concerns about delta variables intensify, I cannot imagine that this development will accelerate employment growth in this industry (the number of hospitalizations in Wisconsin is much lower than the winter peak, but higher than the first wave peak in March 2020, and still rise).
Finally, we can look at how other employment indicators track the labor market.
Figure 4: Non-agricultural employment (blue) and civilian employment (red) are both in the log, 2020M02=0. The decline date defined by NBER is shaded in gray. Source: BLS, DWD, Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
Both series are on the rise, with non-agricultural employment increasing faster in July.Civilian employment based on household rather than institutional surveys showed lower growth, but More inaccurate and require extensive modificationIn this case, it is best to rely on year-on-year figures, in which civilian employment increased by 5.4%, and non-agricultural employment increased by 3.7%.
