A generationn Afghanistan faces a rapidly growing population and completely insufficient food production. So far, this gap has been filled by imports funded directly or indirectly by the Western Alliance. But with the end of the Western-backed government, the suspension of financial aid, and the termination of many development projects by foreign cooperative organizations, supply shortages may soon appear.
The last time there was a famine in Afghanistan in most of the country was in 2001 and 2008, both of which were emergency government interventions. World Food Program (WFP) makes it necessary. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations World Food and Agriculture Organization wrote in a recent report that from 2018 to 2020, about 25.6% of the Afghan population will be malnourished on average, or about 9.7 million people. The proportion of undernourished people was significantly lower than that of the same period from 2004 to 2006, which was 36.1%. However, due to the significant growth of the Afghan population now, the number of malnourished Afghans has remained the same.
Half of farmers practice subsistence agriculture
Compared with 2001 Taliban If control of Afghanistan is lost, the UN population will increase by 48% by 2021, reaching an estimated 39.8 million. The birth rate of close to 5 is the highest in the world. In the past two decades, the population of this city has almost doubled to more than 9 million. Kabul now has 4.3 million inhabitants, up from 2.5 million in 2001 and 1.9 million in 1995. That was when the Taliban first came to power in the country. Kandahar, the second largest city in Afghanistan, now has a population of approximately 500,000, up from 300,000 in 2001.
However, the country lacks effective agriculture to feed the growing urban population. This is also due to the climatic conditions in arid regions, mostly between 600 and 3000 meters above sea level. 45% of employees work in agriculture, where 26% of the gross domestic product (GDP) is created. But these are a large part of very small economic output.
Half of the farmers are engaged in subsistence agriculture. This country is almost twice the size of Germany, but the population is only half of Germany.according to International Weightlifting Federation GDP is slightly less than 20 billion U.S. dollars. The per capita income is US$500, weighted by 2011 prices and purchasing power parity, and in 2020 it is US$1979. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, due to the difficult security situation, foreign companies have almost never invested in Afghanistan or even exploited natural resources. Therefore, the total merchandise exports to Afghanistan in 2020 will reach 777 million U.S. dollars. However, according to FAO, only importing food into Afghanistan requires an amount equivalent to 300% of the exported goods.
Dependence on food imports
So far, the huge current account deficits related to GDP have been funded by various foreign aids. The latest country report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the current account deficit in 2020 will account for 24.3% of GDP. However, the International Monetary Fund wrote that if all foreign aid, including special support for the Covid pandemic, were included, the current account surplus would be 14.2%. Due to diplomatic reasons, the situation may be a bit vague, but behind the IMF’s statement, simply put, foreign aid will reach 40% of GDP in 2020.
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Kaustubh Deval, head of the FAO programme in Afghanistan, said that dependence on food imports is also a cause of food insecurity in the country. Many improvements can increase agricultural productivity, and FAO will continue to work hard to achieve this goal. The political connections surrounding the United Nations Food Organization in Rome are pungent: the long-term FAO is led by Chinese Director-General Qu Dongyu for two years, while the World Food Program, which specializes in rapid rescue operations, is under the control of the US Executive Director David Beasley. Donald Trump proposed.
