resistanceThe United States will not change its postal address.Therefore, Germany and European Union In the future, there will be no choice but to establish a relationship with the largest country on the planet-as a partner, as a competitor, or even as an adversary. In terms of European security, they have so far achieved little success.
In view of the current tensions, it must be allowed to question whether the assumptions underlying the previous policies are correct: European security status and relations with Russia are not ideal, but basically stable; Russia is a politically and economically declining country; EU and US policies are in the middle Long-term security risks are low.
All three assumptions are not in line with reality. On the one hand, the security situation in Europe is worrying. The disarmament agreement has been lifted, and the neighboring countries between the EU and Russia are neither safe nor stable nor prosperous. We may not even hit the bottom yet.
It is also questionable whether and when the Russian economy, which has been frequently predicted for many years, will collapse. This, in turn, questions the hypothesis that sanctions are an effective means to change the Kremlin process. Although the sanctions have increased the pressure on the Russian economy, the Russian economy is actually quite stable under the support of rising oil prices and prudent macroeconomic policies.
Moscow is willing to take risks, but the West is confused
At the same time, security risks have also increased. Russia is also taking action and using its military power to challenge the West. Moscow’s willingness to take risks is high, and its effectiveness is also high. And the veto power in the UN Security Council has never ceased. In recent years, the risk of serious crises due to misjudgments and related misconduct has increased significantly.
This development is not in the interests of Germany and the European Union. Continuing the previous policy, it is impossible to achieve pan-European security. Russia has succumbed to political and economic difficulties, and its wish to look west again will not be realized. Even dissatisfaction with corruption and Russia’s growing distance from society is growing.
The development of Russia’s domestic and foreign policies, under such emotional eyes of the European Union and the United States, has caused the minds of both the East and the West to be frozen-confusing. The first step is clear: you need to clearly articulate your own interests in the European security policy.
European interests
Most importantly, this is a neighborhood closely related to the idea of European sovereignty. The EU must ensure that it can realize its vision of a stable, safer and prosperous Europe there. Negotiations on conventional and nuclear disarmament are another interest. This should not be left to the United States and Russia.
The tool of execution is called negotiation. Under current conditions, dialogue and discussion are only useful when preparing for negotiations. This is what happened at the Biden-Putin Geneva summit. It has not happened in the EU because the negotiation of common interests has not yet taken place.
Negotiation is result-oriented, but the result is open; it does not have to produce results for the first time. The important thing is to at least try and not exclude results from the beginning.
Open negotiation
impossible? unnecessary? Since the signing of the Paris Charter at the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) in November 1990, have the basic rules of European security been in place? Which was confirmed 20 years later and also signed by the Russian Federation? Everyone should stick to it.
The unstable European security situation makes it inevitable for the EU to negotiate with Russia to alleviate European threats and initiate a stabilization process. In addition to the EU and Russia, when formulating interests, countries that have significantly increased threats in recent years, especially Ukraine, should also be included.
Only in this way will it be possible to discuss the issues identified by the European Union in its recent joint statement on Russia-the role of health, climate, environment and citizen participation.
Now is the time for Germany and the European Union to finally act on foreign policy again instead of reacting. The clearer the expression of interest, of course, one cannot think without values, and the easier it is to constantly check and adjust. The Kremlin’s passiveness in finding a way out should be countered with a common policy based on interests and advantages. Heavy? Yes it is. impossible? Do not.
Reinhard Krumm is the head of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s Vienna office.
