Every crisis itself weakens any country. Sarah Yerkes wrote that in Tunisia, they added fuel to other countries, creating a vicious circle of inaction and instability, and potentially undermining the fragile democratic transition.
Sarah Yerkes is a senior researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace. She focuses on the political, economic and security development of Tunisia, as well as the state and social relations in the Middle East and North Africa. She previously worked in the U.S. State and Department of Defense.
At the end of last month, a member of the Tunisian parliament was personally attacked twice in the chamber, a shocking and vivid reminder of the extent to which the country’s politics has deteriorated. In fact, according to Freedom House, Tunisia, the only free country in the Arab world, has fallen into three crises at the same time. These crises may not only undermine the country’s progress since the 2011 revolution, but may also plunge it into a deep state function. obstacle.
First, the political climate. It is rapidly disintegrating, with deep and vicious polarization and infighting politicians who are unable to cope with huge economic and health challenges. The economy has been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has hit an important tourism industry. This has caused the unemployment rate to soar, and the economy will shrink by nearly 9% in 2020. Finally, the Tunisian government frankly admits that Tunisia is facing a “catastrophic” health situation, with the continuous coronavirus infection causing the highest death rate in Africa.
In the past decade, the political arena has been dominated by moderate, centrist parties, which are able to overcome the usual major differences in order to reach consensus. Therefore, although the former President Beji Caid Essebsi clearly created the Nidaa Tounes Party to fight the popular Islamic party Ennahda, it eventually formed an alliance with Ennahda in 2015.
However, the 2019 election brought the country’s most divided government to date. The largest party, the Baath Party, won only a quarter of parliamentary seats, and 23 parties won three or fewer seats. Most notably, President Case Said was elected by a 73% overwhelming majority, even though he has no political party or clear constituency, and there are few election campaigns—a sign of the public’s disappointment with the new institution.
The country is becoming increasingly polarized. The centrist parties that once ruled Tunisia are now being overshadowed by extremist forces on both sides of the aisle. On the one hand are Abir Moussi and her Free Destoria Party, who seek to return to the dictatorship of the Zine El Abidine Ben Ali era and the end of the democratic transition. On the other hand is Saif Erdin Mahluf and his Kalama Alliance, a Salafist group that requires Islam to play a greater role. The philosophical differences between the two are obvious, but the most disturbing is the increasing trend of violence and vicious attacks in the parliament halls.
On June 30, Musi suffered two violent attacks in a single day, both in active plenary meetings-first the independent parliamentarian Sahbi Samara, and then Mahluf. These attacks not only disrupted the work of the parliament and prevented it from carrying out important economic and social reforms, but they also led to a decline in trust between the public and their elected officials. Although most Tunisian politicians still support democracy, Musi and her Free Destoria party are becoming more and more popular, and calls for a return to the Ben Ali era are increasingly resonating among Tunisians who cannot feed them. He or his family could hardly see any real benefits from the revolution.
Outside the parliament hall, the president and the prime minister are at odds because Said is trying to consolidate the power in the president’s hands and weaken the prime minister’s role. Said can be said to be the biggest obstacle to Tunisia’s success today. By refusing to sign the recent government reorganization, he left 11 cabinet offices without ministers, including the Ministry of Interior, and Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi is currently overseeing his daily duties.
Said has also placed obstacles in the face of all major reform efforts, including refusing to sign members of the Constitutional Court selected by Parliament, the country’s highest judicial body. The court has the power to adjudicate disputes between the president and the government and may prevent Said from implementing his attempt to dissolve the parliament and the prime minister’s office.
Polarization and political infighting have a very serious impact on the stability of Tunisia. The country urgently needs international assistance and is actively seeking a new agreement from the International Monetary Fund. It faces billions of dollars in debt that will mature in the next few months. But because the government was unable to reach an agreement on the terms of the International Monetary Fund or how to provide relief to the poorest Tunisians, there is little hope of a solution in the short term.
The country’s political leaders should openly and loudly acknowledge the seriousness of the political and economic crisis, and make every effort to put aside differences and start implementing necessary economic reforms. In addition, the Parliament and the Prime Minister should recognize Said’s identity — a populist who actively contributes to the national crisis — and bypass it by working directly with donors to ensure the safety of the Covid-19 vaccine and provide emergency medical supplies. Pass him.
Any effort by the Tunisian political class to overcome the vicious and violent nature of today’s Tunisian politics will help restore donors’ belief that Tunisia urgently needs to overcome the triple crises it faces today.
