According to national trends and the SPGMI outlook, employment and GDP continue to grow (report here).
Here's a look at the job outlook compared to November.
figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls (bold black), economic outlook starting in February 2024 (red), economic outlook starting in November 2023 (light green), national forecast based on survey of professional forecasters (light blue ), all in 000's, sa Source: BLS via Fred, tax bureau, Philadelphia Fedand the author's calculations.
The SPF implied forecast is based on a first-difference regression from July 2021 to January 2024, which suggests that a one-percentage-point increase in U.S. nonfarm employment is associated with a 0.76 percentage point increase in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecasts are interpolated to each month via quadratic matching.)
The gap between employment forecasts in the November and February reports underscores the sharp improvement in the outlook. This forecast is very close to the provisional forecast I generated using the SPF National Employment Forecast.
The change in Wisconsin's GDP outlook is less dramatic.
figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (bold black), economic outlook forecast starting in February 2024 (red), economic outlook starting in November 2023 (light green), forecast based on national forecast from survey of professional forecasters (light blue) , all units are US$1 billion. 2017 Seasonally Adjusted Earnings (SAAR). Source: Bank of East Asia, tax bureau, Philadelphia Fedand the author's calculations.
Wisconsin's February 2023 outlook was slightly less optimistic, but showed faster growth in 2024, roughly matching the relationship between U.S. and Wisconsin GDP in 2018-19. (For GDP, my forecast is based on a regression of first-difference estimates, 2018Q1-2019Q4, Adj-R2 = 0.42).
