Instant predictions exceeded forecasts. at present.
figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January average forecast (blue), CBO December forecast (red), SPF median forecast (cyan), FT-IGM December forecast (light green triangle, based on GDPNow in the fourth quarter), GDPNow is 1/18 (light blue square), New York Federal Reserve Bank instant forecast (red triangle), all units are billions. 2017$SAAR. Sources: BEA 3rd Edition, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, FT-IGM, Atlanta Fed (1/18), New York Fed (1/12), and author's calculations.
The forecasts of the WSJ, SPF and FT-IGM are conditioned on various assumptions specific to the forecaster, while the CBO's forecasts are based on current law. GDPNow and the New York Fed's live forecasts are based on the correlation of GDP growth with various economic data.
More on the WSJ investigation here.
