TonOn a flight from London to Munich, a Lufthansa flight attendant handed me a small piece of yellow chocolate: the usual ration. When she saw that I was reading a long German document, she gave me another one, exclaiming: You are so busy! (“You are so hardworking!”) I explained that this is actually a 177-page coalition agreement between the three parties that make up her new government. Excitedly, she bathed me with a handful of miniature chocolate bars, and then another handful. Most of them were provided by me to my neighbors. They have young children, but I stole a pair from my pocket.A few days later, I introduced one to an important minister “Traffic light” government Social Democratic Party, Green Party and Liberal Democratic Party Formally take office In Berlin on Wednesday. He accepted it with proper ceremonial seriousness.
Need some chocolate. In view of the difficulty in reaching consensus among the three parties, the alliance agreement is very coherent, substantive and ambitious.Some parts of it are even well written, echoing the inspiring rhetoric of the great prime minister of West Germany. Eastern politics, Willie Brandt. Suitable for a democracy that is now more respected than the United States, it proposes a mixture of continuity and change.However, the government headed by the prime minister Olaf Schultz Facing a huge challenge from day one. As before in German history, many of them are located in the east. They are Germany’s New Oriental problems.
The first is within its own borders, in the former East Germany.In september ReferendumIn Saxony and Thuringia, about a quarter of the vote went to the far-right xenophobic German Choice Party (AfD).Just this week there is a flash mob style Demonstrations in Saxony The opposition to mandatory vaccination was reportedly organized by far-right activists. The social psychology of the two eastern German states has more in common with other parts of post-communist central Europe (such as Poland and Hungary) than with countries such as Hamburg or Stuttgart. Schultz’s “respect” agenda for those who feel ignored or disrespected is particularly relevant here.
The second New Oriental problem in Germany is the erosion of democracy and the rule of law in Poland and Hungary. Germany’s economic presence in these countries is huge. Under the leadership of German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), Berlin bears the main responsibility for the EU’s too weak line towards populist rulers. The alliance agreement very strongly requires Europe to be more united and respect the rule of law. Will the new government follow through to the end and become a decisive advocate for the restoration of democracy in Hungary and the rule of law in Poland across Europe?
The third and fourth Eastern issues are intertwined.They concern the land between the EU and Russia-Ukraine and Belarus -And Russia itself. The balance of relations with Russia and other Central and Eastern European countries is one of the oldest problems in Germany’s eastward policy. In the past 300 years, we have witnessed all possible variants, including the most extreme variants: in the fall of 1939, Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union undertook a brutal and complete division of Poland according to secretly agreed routes. Old ghosts are easily awakened in the minds of Eastern Europe. Many people view Russia’s direct connection to Germany’s Beixi 2 natural gas pipeline as another example of Germany placing its relationship with Moscow over the interests of the land of the two countries.
In this regard, the alliance agreement is significant.It puts relations with Ukraine and Belarus after relations with the United States and the United Kingdom, and prior to relations with the United States and the United Kingdom RussiaIt supports the demands of the Belarusian opposition for new elections and declares: “Russian intervention supports [Belarusian president Alexander] Lukashenko is unacceptable.” It pledged to support the restoration of Ukraine’s “full territorial integrity and sovereignty” and called for the cessation of any attempts to further destabilize the country.
However, before the ink dries, these good words are put to the test. Vladimir Putin is gathering a large military force on the eastern border of Ukraine, demanding respect for his “red line”, that is, Ukraine should not join NATO, nor should it receive military supplies or support from NATO member states. The US intelligence agency said it looked like a serious invasion force. At least one participant who participated in the annual Valday discussion group meeting with Putin in October believed that the Russian threat was real. The German intelligence service clearly believes that this is still tense.
Either way, credible deterrence is required.U.S. President Joe Biden is focusing on Economic measures Germany is an important participant in European and Western orchestras. Is the Chancellor of the Exchequer Schultz prepared to at least privately make it clear to the Russian leaders that if Russia invades Ukraine again, the Beixi 2 pipeline will become the world’s largest underwater white elephant? This will disturb Schultz’s former party chairman Gerhard Schroeder, who is shamelessly chairman of Beixi 2, but it will be an important signal of the new government’s commitment to democracy, Europe and the West.
The Russia/Ukraine issue is the most pressing, but in the long run, Germany’s fifth Eastern issue is the largest: China. If you want, you can call it the Far East problem. The language of China in the alliance agreement has once again attracted attention. It adopts the EU’s ternary formula of “partnership, competition, and system confrontation”, mentioning Xinjiang’s violation of human rights, undermining Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems”, and the need for transatlantic coordination of China’s policies. It insists that any change in the status quo of the Taiwan Strait can only be done peacefully through mutual agreement.
At present, China is blocking all imports from Lithuania in order to punish the small Baltic EU member states for allowing the establishment of a representative office in Taiwan. Beijing even pressured multinational companies to abandon Lithuanian suppliers. The EU should be a single trading bloc, speaking with one voice. The European Commission is proposing a strong package of measures to deal with this bullying. Is Germany ready to support the EU’s strong response to Beijing’s attempts to divide and rule internally? EuropeOr are you too afraid of destroying your economic relationship with China?
In solving these Eastern problems, the new German government faces two major domestic obstacles: German companies mostly just want to continue to make money in all these places, especially in China, and German public opinion. Some people do not realize how threatening the world has become, especially in the East. But at least there is a sensible understanding and declared political goals at the top. If Germany’s new leader succeeds in striking the right balance in every situation, it will not only be a Hansa chocolate bar, but also a large box of the best Belgian chocolates.
