While GDP was revised down, GDO is in line with my guess from last month.
figure 1: GDP forecast (light blue), GDPNow as of 8/24 (light blue squares), GDP second release (dark blue), GDO 7/29 forecast (pink), GDO (dark red), final sales forecast Value (light green), final sales (dark green), all in 2012Q12 billion SAAR. The GDO forecast assumes a $100 billion decline in net operating income for the second quarter. Source: BEA 2023Q2 First and Second Release, atlanta fedand the authors’ calculations.
GDO rose 1.3%, below the downwardly revised 2.1% increase in GDP (SAAR). As noted elsewhere, GDO (relative to final revised GDP, forecasting future GDP) is more reliable than GDP itself (eg, Nallerwick, 2010, year 2011)
Note that final sales were not significantly revised up at 2.2%; keep in mind that final sales are calculated from the same data as GDP (on the spending side), which shows continued growth in aggregate demand.
As of August 24, the GDPNow growth rate (SAAR) was 5.9%. Note that other tracking estimates vary. Goldman Sachs is at 2.6% (8/28) and Wells Fargo is at 2% (8/25).
