from Philadelphia FedConsensus Index 3-Month Growth to June 2022:
resource: Philadelphia FedJuly 27, 2022.
Negative growth was recorded only in Alaska and Montana. Using Baumeister et al. Weekly indicators of economic conditions, growth in Alaska and Utah were only negatively impacted (as of June 25).
The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index differs from both the official BEA measure and IHS Markit’s GDP measure:
figure 1: 2012 $monthly GDP (pink), coincident index (cyan), 2012$ official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (published July 1, 2022), Philadelphia FedBEA, and the authors’ calculations.
In some ways, this is not surprising.The Philadelphia Fed index is based on four indicators: nonfarm payrolls, average hours worked by production workers in manufacturing, unemployment, and wage and salary spending deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. urban average),” which primarily reflect The labor market, as we know from agency surveys Still strengthening through June.
For comparison, here is a map of 2007M12, the NBER peak before the Great Recession:
resource: Philadelphia Fed.
At least 13 states, including Michigan, recorded declines when the Great Recession began (but nine months before Lehman).
