Yes Europe Enter a new era of dangerous instability? Since the cold war with the Soviet Union was the fiercest, it seems that it has not been so susceptible to attacks by hostile forces.
The accumulation of external threats and internal differences, coupled with the weakening of the US security alliance, the ruthless subversion of Russia, and China’s power war against Western values, have exposed fundamental strategic weaknesses.
Europe is increasingly resembling a troubled democratic island in an anarchic world, and waves of authoritarianism, impunity and violations of international rules are likely to overwhelm it.Some European leaders understand this, especially the French President Emmanuel Macron, But long-term policy remedial measures discouraged them. For example, the practice of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko using immigration to pressure the European Union is clearly outrageous.
However, it worked because Germany’s caretaker Chancellor Angela Merkel called him to chat and ended his isolation after the coup. Her unilateral actions Understandably, it angered the Baltic states. This is a concession to the mob, not a lasting solution.
Speaking of thugs, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued intimidation of Ukraine is likely to expand the war. The 90,000 Russian army’s latest border build-up may be Tensions, Similar to the provocation in Donbass and the Black Sea last spring. Otherwise, Europe can only blame itself. Putin’s tough attitude directly stems from his acquiescence in the fact that he illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.
The instability in the European periphery extends to the Balkans, because there are good reasons to worry that Bosnia and Herzegovina will fall back into conflict after 26 years. Dayton Peace Agreement.
The nationalist revival represented by the separatist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik was promoted by Belgrade and Moscow.A bigger strategic problem is the EU’s incompetence Fulfill the promise Closer integration with the region.
Europe’s relations with Turkey, the key gatekeeper, are also experiencing problems, thanks in part to the very unpleasant President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.Last year, when Macron threatened EU member Greece and Cyprus Dispatch navy To the eastern Mediterranean. The rest of Europe can’t do anything about it.
Erdogan also intervened in the conflict between Ukraine and Azerbaijan-Armenia. Broke out again last week. However, Brussels paid him to stop refugees from the Middle East, so it hardly dared to challenge him.
The vicious circle squeezing Europe is not just actual or potential armed conflict. One of its greater dilemmas is migration. Despite the severity of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, the EU still lacks an agreed humanitarian policy. This guarantees more trouble.Ironically, one of the main opponents Is Poland, Reject the immigration quota. However, in the face of border chaos, hypocritical right-wing leaders, such as Hungary’s Victor Orban, fought fiercely with Brussels over the rule of law and democracy, calling for the European Union to unite.
It is also disturbing that many European public opinion seems to have accepted illegal obstruction and daily abuse of asylum seekers in violation of EU law, whether in refugee camps in Libya or on Greek beaches. This reflects another self-inflicted trauma: the growing influence of xenophobic right-wing populists and the re-normalization of ultra-nationalist politics in Europe around 1914.
In a world of Donald Trump’s clones and imitators, if Europeans don’t support Western democratic values, who will? Sadly, they cannot count on Britain. No longer a trusted friend, Britain under the leadership of Boris Johnson sniped and sneered on the sidelines and has become another peripheral conflict zone of the EU. Britain is more exciting than its allies.
Defense Minister Ben Wallace used the related Belarus-Ukraine crisis to advance the Brexit agenda and enter arms deals with Warsaw and Kiev last week. It can be said, Britain sent troops, Not humanitarian aid, to the Polish border.
Europe’s unstable era is also largely due to events beyond its control. Few people predicted that Trump would try to blow up what Franklin D. Roosevelt called the “democratic arsenal” and the Western alliance with it. He might try again.
Similarly, few people predict, such as Merkel now admits, China will become such a domineering, economically aggressive, and anti-democratic global competitor.
US President Joe Biden assured Europeans that even after Afghanistan, NATO remains as important as ever.But his Avant-garde video summit Last week’s conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping showed his true focus.
Putin saw this and smelled blood. The supply of natural gas in Europe is a pressure point. Covert cyber attacks are another type.Regardless of European security concerns, Russia unscrupulously conducts anti-satellite missile tests Hooliganism in outer space.
Europe cannot allow Putin to pay a heavy price for his aggression in Georgia and Crimea, his destruction of Russian democracy, his interference in foreign elections, and his involvement in Alexei Navalny and European lands. The brutal attacks of other opponents on the Internet exacerbated a sense of decline.
In China, nothing comes close to a united front. This weakness will encourage other predators. So what should I do?
Europe, as always, is a divided house. Eastern Europeans continue to believe in Washington instead of Brussels, although if the Democrats lose the White House in 2024, this clearly heralds another transatlantic rupture.
The EU bureaucracy is weak and its parliament has no teeth. Germany lacks a recognized leader.In France, Macron faces A vicious spring election Oppose the extreme right wing supported by Russia.
However, Macron’s idea of enhancing European political, security and military “strategic autonomy” and a stronger, financially and economically integrated European Union offers the most promising path forward.
The EU Defense Minister discussed last week “Strategic Compass” Program To improve joint capabilities. But it seems that there is still a long way to go to reach agreement on issues such as the proposed “rapid deployment force.”
As France Ready to assume the rotating presidency of the European Union, will other leaders recognize this critical moment and support Macron? In the world of sharks, snakes and terrifying monsters, Europe’s independence, cohesion and values are at stake as never before.
