DThis week, the Federal Republic experienced one of the worst storm disasters in its history. At least 100 people died in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. This is something that has never happened since the Hamburg storm surge caused more than 300 deaths in 1962.However, experts and politicians expect that this storm It will happen more frequently and more extreme in the next few years.
Climate change commissioner Alliance faction In the Bundestag, Anja Weisgerber told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: “The era when climate change is associated with polar bears on melting ice floes is finally over.” He “came into the middle of our society”. It is now necessary to adjust urban planning, for example, through “underground catchment ponds where water cannot drain fast enough in densely populated and enclosed areas.”
Lisa Badum, spokesperson for the Green Party’s climate policy, said: “Germany is not armed enough to deal with the climate crisis.” Everything must now be “activated” to prevent this as much as possible, and Germany must “ Climate protection-immediate procedure “hang up. Lukas Köhler, FDP’s climate policy spokesperson, stated that “there are many ways to minimize the damage caused by climate change.” For example, this includes “faster information exchanges between early warning systems and digitally connected authorities, more efficient sewage systems and floodplains or better insurance protection so that the storm does not damage entire livelihoods”.
Carsten Träger, the environmental policy spokesperson for the SPD parliament group, also called on society to adapt to the consequences of climate change. “For me, this also includes compulsory insurance against such natural disasters in buildings.” The climate politician of the left-wing parliamentary group Lorenz Gosta Botin criticized the “unchecked surface seal of concrete Germany”, which is “due to the lack of response measures by the federal government, which is still in the process of recording.”
For climate researcher Harald Kunstmann, cities inevitably have to prepare for future storms. Because the climate system will delay its response. Most importantly, it is important to establish “extended disaster control”. “Sandbags, mobile flood barriers, emergency generators, emergency tents or debris removal equipment must be prepared, and they must be practiced,” Kunstmann said. In addition, the size of the sewer system must be checked. Most of the time, the basic data on the expected amount of water is out of date.
Whether this extreme event is a consequence of climate change is not yet scientifically answered. “Attributing individual events to climate change is still very difficult. This should also apply to the current heavy rains,” said Sebastian Sippel of the ETH Zurich. The problem is that natural fluctuations in weather cover the effects of climate change. Basically, however, climate researchers predict that in a warm world, heavy rain will become more intense, because when the weather gets hot, the air can absorb more moisture. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said: “The increase in heavy rain and the decrease in the number of light rain days are now well documented in the measurement data, especially in the mid-north latitudes, including Germany.”
Climate researcher Jakob Zscheischler also suspects that heavy rainfall in the future will “become more extreme as long as we continue to emit carbon dioxide”. On the other hand, “resolutely protect the climate” helps. However, he pointed out, “We must learn to accept the events we are experiencing now, because we have raised the temperature of the whole country to more than two degrees. This historical development is actually irreversible.”
This is what Ulrich Achatz, a Frankfurt climate researcher, said. The frequency of extreme precipitation depends on temperature. Achatz said: “In this regard, climate protection measures should only be able to reverse the trend of extreme precipitation sooner or later if global temperature rises.” Even if brave climate protection measures are taken, this may take decades. time. Kiel climate researcher Mojib Latif told FAS: “Climate change is in full swing. Extreme weather is increasing and intensifying. Humans have just left their comfort zone and are heading to the unknown world.”
The severe storm did not surprise insurance experts. In a study conducted in 2020 with the participation of the world’s largest reinsurance company Munich Re, this is based on two scenarios: “business as usual”, no major climate impact and global warming of more than four degrees, and secondly, mild scenarios and consistent Climate efforts and global warming are “only” 2.4 degrees. Compared with the hail maps from 1971 to 2000, these two situations have undergone earth-shaking changes. Under the “business as usual” situation, experts even predict that severe hail events with a particle diameter of more than 5 cm will double.
