A sort ofThe West has repeatedly worried that Russia may invade Ukraine. And it was not as concealed as in 2014, when only the Crimean “green men” were delayed to be recognized as the Russian army, but publicly. Similar to last spring, photos of tanks in Voronezh and other places in western Russia are also circulating on social networks. Most of them were taken from passing cars. In addition, there is also impressive information about Russia’s assembly of troops on its western border; in Kiev, the number is 114,000.
However, in order for these numbers to be meaningful, one must base it on the number of Russian soldiers permanently stationed in Russia’s western and southern military districts (the latter also includes the annexed Ukrainian Crimea). Such invoices have not yet been issued. The strength of the Ukrainian armed forces is estimated at 1 million.Moscow often rejects Western concerns and emphasizes that they will not pose a threat to anyone; the President Vladimir Putin It also made its own accusations, as always against the Western accusations; in this case, it was about the voyage of US warships across the Black Sea, and Moscow upgraded it to an “unannounced” NATO exercise.
No new propaganda offensive
So far, Moscow has not launched a new propaganda offensive against Ukraine that goes beyond its usual practice for many years. This was not the case during the spring parade, when Kiev was angrily accused of planning to attack the “People’s Republic” in Donetsk and Lugansk and atrocities against civilians. Unlike the spring, there are currently no reports from Russia on “spontaneous combat readiness exercises.” In this case, the movement of troops occurred before the public termination at the end of April. This only applies to the Grodno region of Belarus, which is at the center of the immigration crisis orchestrated by the ruler of Minsk, Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian paratroopers who have returned are said to have been sent there last weekend.
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Andrei Kortunow of the Russian Council of International Affairs, the official Moscow think tank, said during the spring parade that the idea of adding eastern Ukraine to Russia would become “more popular” and whispered about a war. It may fail to enter “Europe” as in 1914, and the relationship between Moscow and Kiev has not improved since then. For example, in Ukraine, the pro-Russian politician Viktor Medwetschuk (Viktor Medwetschuk), Putin’s companion, was accused of treason. Last month, Moscow angered the Ukrainian armed forces using Turkish Bayraktar drones in the Donbass, which helped the Azerbaijani army led by ruler Ilham Aliyev in Nagorny Karabakh. The Armenian army was defeated in the battle in the conflict zone a year ago.
Insufficient forces to conduct “serious” military operations
President Volodymyr Serensky “Maybe trying to become the Aliyev of Ukraine,” the news portal “Moscow Times” quoted observer Kortunov as expressing Moscow’s concern that Ukraine might try to retake the “People’s Republic” militarily. But for Kortunov, everything currently supports viewing Russia’s actions as mere deterrence. There are not enough troops on the border to conduct “serious” military operations. “To be honest, I think there is no reason to expect an invasion,” Kortunov told the Moscow Times. “I don’t know what it will achieve. The losses will be huge, and the possible gains will be very limited.”
However, the focus of concerns about invasion has shifted to how Moscow simultaneously promotes the “gradual annexation” of the so-called “People’s Republic”. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine have been naturalized by Russia. Many of these “new Russians” voted in the Duma elections of the Russian House of Commons in September last year, and voted during online and organized trips to the neighboring Rostov region of southwestern Russia.
Invasion fears and immigration crisis distracting
The outstanding figures who conquered Donbass were authorized by the Duma: the writer Sachar Prireppin, who had fought in the Donbass, and Alexander, who temporarily served as the “head of government” of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” ·Bo Luo Dajie. Borodage, who belongs to the Power Party, United Russia, said in a recent interview that the army of the “People’s Republic” and the Russian armed forces are also “our Russian people” and there is no difference. The official also stated that there are no active Russian armed forces in the “People’s Republic”.
In fact, the “People’s Republic” is getting closer and closer to Russia. On Monday, Putin signed a decree to provide “humanitarian assistance” to the “People’s Republic”. The goods produced there — or at least labeled — can now be traded in Russia in unlimited quantities or purchased by government agencies. This can be understood as the legalization of the shadow economy. The other commodities are coal first, which has been brought to Russia and entered the market as domestic coal from there. This step is also officially called the “exception” and applies “until the political settlement of the situation.” However, Putin’s decree is consistent with many corresponding measures such as the conversion of the ruble in 2015, the recognition of the “People’s Republic of China” and “passport” in 2017, and the naturalization that began in 2019. Concerns about the invasion of Belarus and the EU border and the immigration crisis may distract attention from these measures.
