“When they are really fighting ideology rather than conventional military, all the air power in the world is of little use.”
― Christina Lamb, farewell to Kabul: from Afghanistan to a more dangerous world
With the United States leaving Afghanistan in what is known as the “eternal war”, there is no doubt that the Taliban have taken solid steps to seize territory. But how much land the Taliban occupies is a mosaic painting that changes with each passing day.
There are many different maps out there, so let’s dive into it.
“What the Taliban does is control the disputed area; this is how they flip the switch,” said Bill Roggio, a senior researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD) and editor of the FDD Long-Term War Magazine. “In many cases, the Taliban are prepared to occupy these areas in advance.”
The term “control” usually refers to areas where the Taliban also manages government agencies, law enforcement, administrative centers, and has its own shadow leaders.
The main ruling area of the organization covers most of the southern part of the country, including northern Helmand Province and Kandahar. Nevertheless, the group is still growing steadily in the northern and central regions of landlocked countries.
According to the Long War Journal analysis, as of July 27, the Taliban controlled 224 out of the 421 possible regions- About 53% of countries – And 110 regions are considered “controversial”. This marks a major change from the Taliban’s rule of 77 regions with 194 disputed regions in mid-April.
But the situation is getting worse. According to FDD’s assessment, in the past two months, the Taliban and their allies have raided more than 145 areas. The equipment also occupied Spin Boldak, an important border crossing point between Kandahar Province and Pakistan.
The Taliban’s leadership itself claims that it now manages “85% of Afghanistan’s territory. This still seems to be an exaggeration. However, it seems to have been inspired by the U.S. withdrawal. According to records, the Taliban are also getting closer and closer to major majors such as Kunduz, Herat and Kandahar The city, although they have not yet determined the governance situation.
Although there is clear control over most of the land in Afghanistan, analysts are quick to point out that these areas are mainly sparsely populated and urban areas are still under government jurisdiction. As a result, more than half of the Afghan population still lives under the jurisdiction of Kabul. But in disputed areas—usually controlled by Kabul and the Taliban—the ruling party fluctuates with the wave of immigration.
However, Roggio and others emphasized that the Taliban’s goal from the beginning was to focus on land rather than population control, which has proven to be a key part of its propaganda activities.
Nonetheless, the Afghan government responded to the Taliban’s statement that it used distorted data as part of its propaganda activities.
There are also some thin silver linings.
For example, the Kabul government has stated that it has sent additional troops to all major cities. In addition, data shows that in recent months, the Afghan army has successfully captured at least 20 major disputed areas.
Other analysts also pointed out that it is basically impossible at this stage to accurately explain who “controls” what and when.
“It is impossible to know who controls which areas of Afghanistan. This is a very fast-moving situation. There will always be areas in Afghanistan that express sympathy for the Taliban’s cause,” speculates Luke Kofi, who is in charge of research at the Heritage Foundation. “This is especially true in countries and regions dominated by Pashtuns. It is more important to see who controls the most populous areas, not who controls the administrative boundaries on the map.”
Kofi also emphasized that we should not forget that Afghanistan has nearly 420 regions; therefore, occupying an area in some remote areas may mean occupying a road intersection and a government building.
“Control of these areas is controlled back and forth,” he continued. “What I have noticed is that we only see headlines in the Western media when the Taliban occupy an area. When the Afghan government reoccups the area, it will never let the media report.”
I also turned to Miguel Miranda, a global expert analyst in the military technology field. Within his purview, the Taliban’s ongoing movement is more like a broad effort aimed at disrupting the armed forces and police, and then the economy.
“The ultimate goal is to force the current Kabul government to surrender or flee. So far, they (the Taliban) have achieved impressive results in the past two months,” he said. “It is also important to recognize that the Taliban’s victory occurred in the’region’ representing the smallest administrative unit of the country. Even if the Taliban occupy many areas, the provincial capitals and the largest cities (such as Herat and Kandahar) are far away. “
Miguel also emphasized that the Afghan National Army (ANA) has made progress, “this is largely due to the well-equipped commandos that are known for their loyalty to the country.”
“The role of air support should not be underestimated. The Afghan Air Force, which has just started, does have attack helicopters and super toucans to attack ground targets,” he continued. “When the local pro-government militias known as’insurgent forces’ increase, the manpower of the ANA and the commandos is considerable.”
In his summary, the government is at a loss in many parts of the country, but this is not a decisive loss. The decisive loss will be the fall of cities such as Kandahar or Jalalabad.
At the same time, US officials mainly avoid commenting on specific statistics. Earlier this month, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby declined to respond directly, “claiming land ownership does not mean you can maintain or maintain it for a long time.”
Roggio has drawn maps of Afghanistan’s ruling regions for more than seven years, and he also pointed out that the only other attractive institution in the country is the ISIS affiliate, ISIS-K.
“But they have been downgraded to fight and attack in cells,” he explained, rather than securing the site.
However, in any case, it is undoubtedly the Afghan civilians who pay the price.
According to a report released by the United Nations this week, the number of civilian casualties in the first half of this year has soared by 50% compared to the same period last year. The report further pointed out that 64% of the casualties were caused by anti-government forces, 25% were caused by pro-government forces, and the remaining 11% were collateral damage. Approximately 32% of the casualties were children.
The Biden administration has set August 31 as the date for the final withdrawal of US troops, but 650 soldiers will assist the security of the US Embassy in Kabul.
From here, the future remains to be seen.
“It is impossible to know what will happen in six months. A provincial capital is likely to fall into the hands of the Taliban. The Taliban may consolidate their control of some areas they already control or contend for. But they believe that the Afghan government and the Afghan army are unable or unwilling. The idea of continuing to fight the Taliban is naive,” Kofi added. “Let’s not forget that the United States had only a few thousand soldiers on the ground for the entire last year. Their mission is to train the Afghan army, not to lead combat operations.”
For more information, please visit Holly McKay’s World of War, Crime + Crisis
