widthIf the LGBTIQ community has their way, then Bundestag election For the Social Democratic Party and the CDU in the upcoming federal election, the outcome will be worse than generally expected. Therefore, the Green Party clearly leads with 52.6% of the votes, followed by the left with 17.4%, and the CDU and the Social Democratic Party can only achieve single-digit results. This is the result of an electoral study in the Bundestag elections. A team of political scientists from Justus Liebig University (JLU) Gießen, the University of Vienna, and the Krems University of the Danube University submitted the study on Tuesday. Since 2015, scientists around the Ph.D. Dorothèe de Nève conducted a number of studies on LGBTIQ voting behavior. Now they have released their latest figures, which is not very pleasing to the current government.
During the four weeks between July 15 and August 15, the team collected data online. The JLU website is used for advertising, but the most important thing is that it is advertised on social media such as Twitter. Facebook And Instagram or through multipliers. According to the institute, more than 9,000 submissions were received. Finally, a data set of 5149 entries remains available for inspection. In international comparison, the current research on the 2021 federal parliament election is by far the largest LGBTIQ election research in the world.
CDU will fail at 5% barrier
In Germany, an estimated 18 to 3 million people are eligible to vote LGBTIQ (Gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender, bisexual or queer). Therefore, LGBTIQ election research “is very important for political and scientific reasons, because its purpose is to increase the visibility of people with these sexual preferences and their political interests, break prejudices, and promote LGBTIQ’s fully representative research theory in science and politics.
499 people from Hessen also participated in the survey. Data for 18 to 97-year-olds were evaluated; on average, the age of the respondents was slightly older than 35. After 2017, this federal election was evaluated by scientists for the second time.
This time, the performance of the two major parties was even worse than four years ago.this CDU For example, in this year’s election research, only 3.2% (6.9 in 2017). SPD is falling completely, but it should be noted that the study cannot reflect the increase in many surveys in the past few weeks because the survey was conducted at an earlier time. From 21.2% in 2017, it can only save 9.2% in this year’s survey.
A negative choice
this Liberal Democratic Party In this year’s assessment, it dropped from 9.1% four years ago to 7.1%. AfD dropped from 2.7% to 2.6%. But the left is also failing: it reached 17.4%, but it was down 5.4% compared to 2017. The big winner is Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen. They received a support rate of 23.6%, so they won a support rate of 52.6% in the 2021 LGBTIQ community election research.
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The largest subgroup of respondents was gay men.This suggests that compared with the entire sample, gay men, especially lesbians, are more likely to be FDP or Social Democratic Party prefer. At a lower level, this also applies to CDU/CSU and AfD. Although only 2.4% of lesbians surveyed are willing to vote for the FDP in the upcoming federal election, 11.2% of gay men. On the other hand, the Green Party benefited from the recognition of lesbians (63.3%).
Most importantly, refuse BundestagFor example, reforming the transgender law at least affected the decisions of many interviewees. Participants who now want to vote for the left and the Green Party are particularly dissatisfied with these decisions.
Participants in the LGBTIQ election research online questionnaire also have the opportunity to use their own words to justify their party preferences. Many people responded that they would choose a “lesser evil” or a specific party for strategic reasons. According to scientists, this is usually a negative choice: the choice is what is left at the end of the rejection.
