That’s it Ed Leamer pointed out in 2007 that. Residential construction employment, spending, housing starts, new home sales, all normalized to 2021M11.
figure 1: Homebuilding employment (blue), homebuilding spending due to PCE contraction (tan), housing starts (green), new home sales of single-family homes (red), all seasonally adjusted, Nov 2021 log = 0. Sources: BLS, Census, Census/HUD, BEA, and authors’ calculations.
already September, Limer Didn’t see a coming recession. Not sure what we’re going to do with the current data. In fact, he argues that the housing market is a reliable predictor of a recession given that it has not increased significantly compared with 2007 in the face of continued strong demand and the general strength of the financial system.
