In the weeks before Australia’s most populous state of New South Wales lifted the 106-day lockdown in October, the surge in Covid cases seems certain to coincide with the relaxation of restrictions.expert The number of infections is expected to rise And the hospital is ready for a series of new admissions.
However, the opposite happened. The number of daily Covid cases has declined, and-more than a month after the lockdown was lifted-the number continues to decline.
October 11, Thousands of Sydneysiders flocked To the newly opened cafes, bars and gyms.446 new cases Report There are 769 people receiving Covid treatment in hospitals across the state.
The model predicts that with the reopening of schools and offices, the number of daily cases of 8 million people in the state will increase to 1,900 cases per day within a few weeks after the restrictions are relaxed, and there will be a second, larger peak around Christmas. . Burnett Institute, Australia’s leading medical research center, forecast By the end of September, the number of people hospitalized in Sydney will reach 2,286 to 4,016.
In contrast, the number of new Covid cases per day in New South Wales dropped from the peak of 1,603 on September 10, and is now hovering around 200 to 250 new cases per day. In the past week, there were an average of 226 new infections every day. The number of hospitalizations has also fallen by more than two-thirds.
Victoria, Australia’s second most populous state, also experienced a similar steady decline, with daily new cases falling from a peak of 2,293 on October 13 to less than 1,000 in the past week.
This is unexpected but welcome news, because the rest of the world is worried about their rising number of Covid cases. They are worried about resuming the lockdown and racing to launch a booster program.
The fourth and fifth waves of the virus are Swept Europe. This month alone, due to increasing pressure on hospitals, infection rates in Germany, Greece, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia and many eastern countries have soared to record highs.
Health experts say that lessons can be learned from New South Wales’ success in reopening the economy while maintaining a low number of cases. Impressive and rapid vaccination, coupled with mask requirements, contact tracing and isolation requirements, and vaccination entry permits, are largely considered the reasons for controlling the epidemic and keeping the number of cases low.
According to the government’s health department, less than 9% of adults in New South Wales received two injections on the first day of the Sydney lockdown. dataBy the end of the lockdown a few months later, this number had risen to 73.5%, and 90.3% of the eligible population had received the first dose.
Dole said that the change in vaccination rates is “a word: amazing.” New South Wales now has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. As of November 18, 91.4% of adults were vaccinated twice.this speed The country’s increased launch efforts run counter to countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which began to stagnate when they approached the 50% mark.
Nevertheless, experts believe that even a high level of vaccination is not enough to curb Covid.
“The model underestimates the impact of vaccination on transmission, as well as the vaccination rate in the first few months, especially the spread of targeted vaccination to a wider geographic area,” Dole said.
Timing is also critical. Doll said that the short interval between Pfizer’s two doses allowed the New South Wales Department of Health to quickly vaccinate large numbers of people and “optimized the impact of infection prevention.” Therefore, when the blockade is lifted, the level of immunity is high. Unlike the rest of the world, even after the restrictions are relaxed, New South Wales still maintains key public health measures.
Dr Abrar Chughtai, an epidemiologist at the University of New South Wales, said that health authorities continue to require masks to be worn in public places while maintaining contact tracing and isolation requirements to contain the spread.