The household forecast is about 2 percentage points higher than the economist’s forecast.
figure 1: CPI year-on-year inflation (black), the expected median of the professional forecaster survey (blue +), the expected median of the Michigan Consumer Survey (red), the median of the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey (light green), and the Cleveland’s forecast Fed (pink), Wall Street Journal, July 2022 year-on-year inflation survey (light blue triangle). Source: BLS, University of Michigan through FRED, Reuters, Survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Wall Street Journal investigation in July.
As a reminder—as all expectations of y/y inflation rise—consumer/household expectations are higher than those of economists and other forecasters, and (as discussed Here), biased upward.
Discussed Michigan’s forecast Here.
