exist Britain will withdraw completely on New Year’s Day European Union One year: Break away from its political and legal structure, break away from the single market, break away from the customs union.
This is what Boris Johnson and Michael Gove-leading the vacation movement-want. There is no awkward halfway home like Theresa May negotiated.No Brexit Light. Quit completely. gone. Brexit did a good job, it really did.
They told us that only a complete break can the UK realize its full potential and get rid of the shackles of EU regulation and bureaucracy.
After liberation, we can take back control of borders, money, and laws. We can look at the world in a new era of discovery, reach a trade agreement far away from the European Union, and create a new level of prosperity for the global UK.
So one year has passed, how is all this going?
The resignation of Lord Frost, the minister in charge of Brexit affairs last weekend, shows that everything is not going well. “Brexit is now safe… The challenge for the government now is to realize the opportunities it gives us. You know my concerns about the current direction of travel,” Frost told the Prime Minister in his resignation letter.
Some in the government hinted that Frost-a Brexit purist and avid deregulator-began to suspect that Johnson had no real plans or really detailed ideas on how to make Brexit work. Slogans and voices play a role.
He was also frustrated with the deadlock Northern Ireland. One year after Brexit, Britain still had a dispute with the European Union over the Northern Ireland agreement. Frost and Johnson negotiated and were hailed as a good way to resolve difficult border issues as part of the withdrawal agreement.
Regardless of the issues that irritated Frost the most, it turns out that fulfilling Brexit promises is much more difficult than fulfilling them.
It is obvious that, at least in the initial stages, Brexit has made us poorer. As EU workers return home, it has caused labor shortages in many business sectors.
There is deep dissatisfaction in certain sectors that promise a lot but almost nothing. The fishermen felt betrayed. Farmers are not sure whether alternative subsidies and payment systems will become all that is being discussed. Small businesses exporting to the EU have been hit by additional costs and paperwork.
Extent of economic loss The Office of Budget Responsibility has clearly stated Brexit. The office predicts that leaving the EU will reduce our long-term GDP by approximately 4%, while the pandemic will cause a decrease of approximately 1.5%.
Brexit did not promote our trade, but hindered its development. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the third quarter of 2021, merchandise exports fell by 14% year-on-year, and exports to EU and non-EU destinations were affected.
According to data from the Food and Beverage Federation, UK food and beverage exports fell by £2.7 billion (-15.9%) in the first three quarters of 2021 compared to pre-pandemic levels. This was mainly due to the new trade barriers with the EU and the continued impact of the Covid pandemic, which resulted in a drop of 2.4 billion pounds (-23.7%) in sales to the EU.
And this is before the implementation of the new rules on imports from the EU in January, and business leaders have stated that this will lead to further declines and delays. Then food from the European Union will face additional physical inspections starting from summer.
It is difficult to accurately understand the consequences of the pandemic and the consequences of Brexit. For Johnson, the coincidence of the new crown virus and Brexit proved to be convenient in a sense, which saved him from blame and covered up the situation. But economists generally believe that the long-term impact of Brexit on the economy will be far greater than the pandemic.
Another core promise of the Brexit movement is that Britain will regain control of its borders. But in the year of tragic loss of life in the Strait, and the anachronistic debate between France and the United Kingdom about who should be blamed, this statement seems completely empty. Refugees living in northern France say that Brexit makes it easier and more attractive for them to arrive in the UK by boat, not less.
Refugees fleeing conflict areas such as Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Eritrea told reporters that Britain is no longer part of the European Union, so it is more dangerous to risk crossing the border because they cannot be sent back to other European countries. .
When asked about the progress of Brexit so far, Charles Grant, director of the European Reform Center think tank, said that, ironically, the most obvious success of the Johnson administration’s post-Brexit negotiations was that it managed to stay close with the EU. The field of contact. The EU, instead of moving away-such as the “rolling” of the EU trade agreement. These include “rolling” agreements with Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Turkey, and South Korea, which have become bilateral agreements with the United Kingdom. The only brand new trade agreement was recently signed with Australia. He said the UK is also trying to reach an agreement with the EU on data flows, although this may soon be threatened as we try to weaken privacy rules.
Grant said that in other areas, Britain has been weakened, especially its influence and strength on the European and world stages.
“Lord Frost refused to establish any form of structural relationship with the EU on foreign and defense policy after Brexit-even though the EU wanted it-and we paid a very heavy price,” he said.
“We lack intelligence about what is happening in the EU because we don’t have any system for meeting with Brussels people on a regular basis. We cannot influence what is happening because we are not in the room. On issues such as Russia, China and climate issues, The United Kingdom-even outside the EU-may have a certain degree of impact because we have excellent people and real expertise.”
As Johnson promised, Joël Reland, a researcher at an independent think tank in the UK in Changing Europe, has been working on the “difference tracker”, a tool that studies the UK’s success in breaking and replacing the European Union with its own rules. The extent of the rules.
He found that many areas lacked disagreements and had no plans. “The main message is that the UK has been talking about disagreements. Frost has repeatedly talked about the long dark years of EU membership and the need for change to unleash growth and innovation, but it just hasn’t been implemented. If you look at budget or net zero For the most important policy changes in the strategy, there are few things that cannot be done within the EU.”
Reland said that in the fields of agriculture, urban supervision, green taxation and financial technology, the progress of new ideas and differences is obvious, but in large areas, little or no value-added tax has occurred. “There is no unified thinking about cross-government divergent strategies,” he said.
The reason he said is that although replacing all EU regulations sounds simple, it is actually complicated and costly for companies.
“I think the UK finds that development is really difficult. Once you try to change everything, there will be more bureaucracy, not less,” he said. “The cost of having all British companies stamp the British logo instead of the EU logo… is not worth the price.”
Our latest Opinium poll shows that more than 60% of people now believe that the outcome of Brexit is either worse than they expected or worse than they expected.It also found that 42% of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 had a negative view of the results of Brexit so far
It is easy to complete Brexit. Proving it is worthwhile and good, it turns out to be much more difficult.
