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HomeEconomyMid-April Business Cycle Indicators | Economic Explorer

Mid-April Business Cycle Indicators | Economic Explorer

Industrial production continued to rise, and February GDP erased January's decline.

figure 1: CES non-agricultural employment (blue bold), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), 2017 personal income excluding current transfers (green bold), 2017 manufacturing and trade sales$ (black), consumption $ in Ch.2017 (light blue), monthly GDP in Ch.2017 (pink), GDP in the third release (blue bar), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11 = 0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023 Q4 Release 3, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (4/1/Published in 2024) and the author's calculations.

Note that GDPNow as of April 16 was at a quarter-over-quarter AR of 2.9%, while the Lewis-Mertens-Stock/New York Fed Weekly Economic Indicator for the week ended April 13 was at 2.01%.this Baumiester, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index (WECI) is -0.39%. If the trend growth rate is 2%, it means the growth rate is 1.61%.

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