Industrial production has reached a consensus. Here is a picture of the key indicators that NBER BCDC follows.
figure 1: Nonfarm employment incorporated in baseline revision (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in 2017 (bold green), manufacturing and trade 2017 Sales $ (black), 2017 quarter consumption $ (light blue), 2017 quarter GDP in $ (pink), third GDP release (blue bar), 2024 first quarter GDPNow as of 2/15 (lilac box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, Q4 2023 Advance Release, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (2/1/Released in 2024) and the author's calculations.
