With industrial production slightly below consensus (-0.1% vs. 0.0%), we can see the following key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Determination Committee (with Nonfarm Employment and Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments) having the largest weights) .
figure 1: CES Nonfarm Employment (NFP) employment (blue bold), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in 2017$ (green bold), manufacturing and trade 2017 Sales $ (black), 2017 consumption (light blue), 2017 monthly GDP (pink), third release GDP (blue bar), all logarithms normalized to 2021 M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 Advance Release, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (5/1/Published in 2024) and the author's calculations.
The latest weekly economic indicator (released as of May 11th) shows a jump above 2% (my guess at the trend), to 2.16%.
