Just 30 years ago, the Irish Republican Army was bombing Downing Street and fired three mortar shells at No. 10 during the cabinet meeting of John Major.
In 2021, ourselvesThe political party associated with the Irish Republican Army in most of the troubles has entered a leadership position to lead the Irish government. This may be the largest national political reform since its establishment 100 years ago.
Ireland is still three years away from the next general election. The victory of Sinn Fein or any other party is far from certain, but the slow seismic shift in Irish politics is hardly worth mentioning abroad, even though it is already creating dynamic changes.
A well-known businessman who asked not to be named said: “This is not a question of whether it will arise, but a question of when the Sinn Fein party will take power.”
This is their transition south of the border and the continued pursuit of the middle class. This is creating tensions for the political parties north of the border. This is powerful.
One of the most respected TDs before Christmas, housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin called Griadans apologized for the Christmas sketches, Joking about a slogan related to IRA. In the past, this affiliation was a matter of discipline.
Critics attribute the party’s significant growth south of the border partly to the transformative power of its leaders. Mary Lou McDonald, Who has nothing to do with the troubled era, represents a complete break with the Adams era.
But it also depends on a change in strategy—putting housing, economic and health issues before a unified Ireland—which is seen as extending its appeal beyond the working-class manor that was once its stronghold.
Opinion poll after poll shows that after a year of breakthroughs in the two political parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, it has expanded its lead.According to mid-December Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, Sinn Fein’s approval rate is now 35%. For the two main parties of the coalition government-Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, this is a seemingly insurmountable gap, each accounting for 20%. Previous opinion polls showed that Sinn Fein’s approval rates were 32% and 33%.
The Labour Party colleague Andrew Adonis went to Dublin to observe the party’s meeting in October and wrote a 3,000-word article for the February issue of Prospects. He said: “You can see a political The revolution is happening before your eyes.
“It sounds like an amazing thing, but it’s true. The desire for power and the discipline behind the leader’s winning of power reminds me of the New Labor Party in the 1990s.”
A major businessman who asked not to be named talked about how the party has improved its electability day by day, issued a declaration to eliminate traces of contact to eliminate darkness, and announced that it was deliberately aimed at “detoxifying” the Sinn Fein party for the middle class Policy. It is worth noting that it did not fight against the government over low corporate taxes, saying that it would only increase the tax revenue of the “top 3%”.
MacDonald told the faithful believers in the gathering Adfes The pandemic has exposed broken housing systems, lack of rental housing, inadequate medical services, and rising costs of living. Soon after she flew to the United States, she gave speeches at the National Press Club in Washington, DC and the New York Bar Association on the impact of Brexit on the United States. Northern Ireland And the potential for unification of the island of Ireland.
The party has also been in contact with business groups to eliminate its position in the corporate world.A report from Ireland Sunday Business Post It pointed out that although McDonald’s “likes to accuse the government of laying out the red carpet for vulture funds and institutional investors,” its analysis of the lobbying register shows that commercial entities that have previously avoided contact with the party are trying to open channels of communication.
Sinn Fein is a confidential and disciplined political party, and its members are rarely out of touch with leadership orders. The report also said that as part of the government’s preparations, McDonald’s instructed its members to contact enterprises, unions and departmental groups.
Sinn Fein’s opportunity in the Dublin government has improved the prospects of the Republican Party, which was founded in 1905 and holds power both north and south of the border. This could significantly change relations with the UK and affect the accelerating debate south of the border. , The prospect of Irish reunification.
Opinion polls indicate that it may become the largest party in the Stormont parliamentary elections in May 2022.
Its rise in the republic first signaled in 2020, when after a surge in support, it won the most preferred votes in the February general election. The result did not translate into power, because the party sent 42 candidates out of 159 candidates, but it “has a major shift in the political landscape,” said Agnès, political lecturer at Dublin City University and author of the book “Government Insurgents” Said Mayotte. A book about Sinn Fein. “Until 2020, its progress can be described as a protest vote,” she said.
Historian Diarmaid Ferriter said that 2020 will mark greater success for the middle class and wealthy voters, and the party has developed through “compromise and adaptation.” “This is the party of Griadans Legacy. In many ways, he is the architect of this, because he uses Sinn Fein for constitutional purposes… He has limited their purism at every crucial moment since the 1980s. position.”
Ferrit said Sinn Fein’s expedients were nothing new. The party used to stay away from politics in Westminster and Dublin, and abandoned its position on the latter in the late 1980s. Another important turning point was that the 1998 referendum deleted the provisions of the Irish Constitution that claimed sovereignty over 32 counties, paving the way for the Good Friday agreement.
“Their acceptance of the existence of Northern Ireland is another turning point because they are accepting the principle of consent. All these compromises make them more palatable,” Ferriter said.
The future success of Sinn Fein will depend on how well it performs in the next three years, as popular housing and health policies are subject to more scrutiny and its past problems are brought to the forefront.
After the civil war and independence in 1921, Ferrit was on par with Fianna Fáil. It was labeled as a party “in the shadow of the gunmen,” but “by emphasizing that they have impeccable conservative credentials and quickly overcome this.” t Communists, they are not atheists either,” he said .
“The Sinn Fein Party will obviously deal with the troublesome legacy issues that often arise, but this does not seem to weaken their momentum, which shows that this change is intergenerational,” he added.
Former British Labour Party goals and analysis manager Kevin Cunningham (Kevin Cunningham) is now a political science lecturer at Dublin University of Technology. He believes that the rise of Sinn Fein is a function of a country’s confidence-enhancing and freeing from civil war politics. The two main parties on the island.
“Since around 1980 and since the decline in religious beliefs in Ireland, you will see a steady increase in the number of people who voted for or supported left-wing parties,” he said.
“Until 1980, the vote of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remained at around 80%, and then ten years after ten years, it only steadily declined.
“In those years, other parties have existed on the left. In particular, the weakness of the Progressive Democrats and the Labor Party is incredible, but at the same time, some people identify themselves as leftists. Sinn Fein has grasped this point. To a certain extent, This is the kind of normalization of Irish politics.”
