A sort ofAt the end of the sci-fi classic of the 60s, The day the earth caught fire, Camera crossing Daily Express Case room to the front page proof hanging on the wall. “Save the Earth”, the title shouted. The camera pans. “Earth Destruction”, the evidence was announced next to it.
The print head looks confused. He will be told which page to choose? We will never know, because the end of this movie does not reveal the fate of our planet, because the Soviet Union and the United States are conducting atomic bomb tests at the same time, and the rotation of the earth has been out of control. What we do know is that due to human stupidity, the fate of the earth is hanging in the balance.
Such a vision may be something of popular entertainment, but it is disturbingly close to our own uncertain future, as emphasized last week. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, This effectively announced the “Code Red” warning for our species.Clear evidence that greenhouse gas emissions are driving us towards a catastrophic fiery future Caused by extreme climate change, It announced. Only by urgently reducing fossil fuel emissions can we hope to save us.
This is a vision that scientists vividly endorse, usually the most cautious commentators on world events. “Our future climate is likely to become some kind of hell on earth,” said Professor Tim Palmer of Oxford University. Or, as Professor Dave Rey, executive director of the Institute of Climate Change at the University of Edinburgh, said: “This is not just another scientific report. This is hell and high water.”
Of course, compared with the more cautious IPCC products in the past, the numbers outlined in the report are sharp and eye-catching. As it shows, since 1850, humans have emitted approximately 2.4 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, producing a concentration of gas that has never been seen on Earth in the past 2 million years.
Heat wave And the resulting heavy rain flood Since the 1950s, climate change has become more intense and frequent in most parts of the world, and climate change is now affecting all inhabited areas on the planet.Droughts are getting worse in many places, more than 66% likely Major hurricanes and typhoons have risen Since the 1970s. Professor Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia said: “If it is still necessary to prove that climate change is caused by human activities, then this report provides evidence.”
The consequences of large-scale human disturbance of atmospheric behavior are now obvious: what is hot today will become hotter tomorrow; extreme floods will become more frequent, wildfires will be more dangerous, and deadly droughts will be more common. In short, things will only get worse.
In fact, by the end of this century, if emissions are allowed to continue at the current rate, they may threaten civilization. Another report author, Professor Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol, added: “This may seem remote, but there are already millions of children who should live to the 22nd century.”
Professor Andrew Watson of the University of Edinburgh said that, in fact, as events that change the world happen, they can become completely catastrophic—for example, the withering of forests on entire continents or the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet. “The IPCC report has fully updated the known situation of climate change, which makes reading difficult. But it also shows that the climate model does not include “low probability-high impact” events, such as severe Changes in ocean circulation, The more climate changes, the greater this possibility. These’known unknowns’ are even more terrifying. “
As Keith Shine, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, pointed out, compared with the previous version, the IPCC’s new report is undoubtedly a very different and uncompromising document. “As early as 1990, I was heavily involved in the IPCC’s first assessment report. At that time we were not even sure whether the observed climate change was caused by human activities. The IPCC now says the evidence is “clear”. This means policy making. There is no hiding place.”
The key point is that this report was not only approved by the scientists, but also by the government representatives on the committee, who made it clear that they also believed in the urgency of the situation. “They also see a direct link between greenhouse gas emissions and forest fires, floods and other recent extreme weather events, which necessitates action by their own government,” said Lord Deben, Chairman of the British Parliament. Climate Change Committee.
At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, those Government commitments From the pre-industrial era, try to keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and if possible, do not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. The problem now is that the world has warmed up by nearly 1.1 degrees Celsius, which means that only drastically reduced emissions can successfully prevent more serious and more dramatic global warming. It will be very nervous. The most ambitious emission scenarios described by the IPCC provide less than 50% opportunities below the 1.5C threshold.
The prospect of limiting global warming to 2C is better, but it still needs to far exceed the emissions reductions that countries promised before the United Nations climate summit Cop26 in Glasgow in November. Professor Rowan Sutton of the National Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Reading said: “It is clear that any hope that climate change may be’not as bad as expected’ is lost.” “It is happening now, and it is happening now. Very fast. Responding to this crisis means taking urgent action.”
However, this is not an easy task. As Nick Starkey, the policy director of the Royal Academy of Engineering, pointed out last week. “The UK cannot achieve its current carbon emission targets. Without in-depth energy efficiency measures, our goal of reducing emissions by 78% by 2035 will not be achieved,” he said.
What is needed is a “social perspective”, a national plan to ensure that all different policies are implemented — from transportation to power generation, from household heating to agriculture — which will be necessary to ensure that emissions are reduced as quickly as possible. “We need to formulate policies across society, otherwise our goals will become empty promises,” said Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
This is a proposal supported by Lord Deben. “In the UK, we need a new planning bill to ensure that all local authorities must take climate change into account every time they make a planning decision. Currently, they have no advice on how to conduct this business at all.” The process will ensure the details and errors of controlling carbon emissions-such as the recently granted planning permission New coal mine in Cumbria ——Not to repeat, he added.
However, the country needs to make considerable and sustained efforts to keep up with such efforts. Tuesday, The front page of the country is filled With images of burning Greek villages and sensational headlines. “Prime Minister: Wake up the red alert on the climate crisis,” warned Daily Express; “As the end of the world report warns of climate change like the end of the world: can Britain lead the world back from the brink of extinction?” mail; and telegraph Announcing that “the United Nations warns of a climate’reality check'”. Considering that many of these papers have taken a long time in the past to discredit climate science and question the reality of global warming, these are radical statements. It remains to be seen how long each publication’s commitment to science remains.
Professor Martin Seegert of Imperial College London added: “The climate story hit the front page on Tuesday, but on Friday three days later, almost no one mentioned it.” “However, this is humanity’s next 30 years. The most important thing that needs to be done during the year. It will change our lives, it will change the way we see ourselves on earth. If we don’t, we will create huge problems for our children. But three days later , We seem to have been forgotten, although it will take decades of unremitting efforts.”
Sigert added that it is estimated that an investment level equivalent to 1% of GDP is needed to ensure the country’s transition to a net-zero state. “However, our current expenditure is about 0.01%… 100% of the estimated price. This is also much lower than the government’s expenditure on things that will actually increase our emissions, such as the airport expansion plan and its plans for new roads. The promised tens of billions of dollars will only make driving and burning more fossil fuels easier.”
These are all issues that the UK will urgently need to resolve in the coming months, although the Cop26 conference in Glasgow will be a more urgent event. At the meeting starting on November 1, representatives from more than 190 countries will gather to finalize an agreement to determine how hot life on earth will become. In Paris in 2015, countries pledged to reduce emissions, and now urgently needs to be updated, otherwise the global temperature will soar above 2C. Likewise, there must be agreement on how to phase out coal-fired power stations as soon as possible, protect forests that absorb carbon dioxide, and agree to provide assistance to developing countries to help them weather the effects of global warming.
This will be a good thing, and it is likely that we will not know whether the negotiator succeeded until the last few minutes of the Glasgow meeting. In this way, we will learn about the fate of the planet in November, 60 years after the movie was released. The day the earth caught fireThen we might better understand that “Earth Saved” or “Earth Doomed” is the correct front page title.
