Vladimir Putin is an old-school man. He yearned for the days when the Soviet Union became a powerful country. He still sees Western democracies as rivals, and will be confused whenever possible. He never accepted the disappearance of the Eastern European Satellite Republic after the collapse of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This is especially true in Ukraine.
Russians think Ukraine It is a stolen territory, it has natural rights, and its roots can be traced back to the time of tsarism and before. Ukrainians (and Belarusians) are habitually called “little Russians”. Indigenous narratives emphasize common history and common beliefs, closely linking two fraternal East Slavic races. Putin has repeatedly stated that “Russians and Ukrainians are one nation.”
Easily forgotten is the imperial oppression of the 19th century, which included the prohibition of the Ukrainian language. In 1918, after the Russian Revolution, Ukraine declared independence, but it was quickly strangled.In the 1930s, an artificial “horror famine” was called Great famine, Killed more than 7 million ethnic Ukrainians and is now officially considered a Soviet genocide.
Despite this, Putin still views modern Ukraine’s efforts to establish closer ties with the European Union and NATO as a betrayal. This attitude is reminiscent of the attitudes of France towards Algeria in the 1950s and Britain towards Ireland in the 19th century. However, he also seems to be really worried about Kiev’s leaning to the west and being encouraged and used by the United States and its allies. threatening To Russia.
Knowing a little bit of this common history is important for understanding why the current tensions on the Ukrainian border have Possibility of explosion Enter the European war. In 2014, in response to the revolution that overthrew the pro-Moscow President of Ukraine, Putin invasion It annexed Crimea and started a proxy separatist conflict in the Donbass region.
The failure of the peace effort initiated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel has directly contributed to today’s crisis. By deploying more than 90,000 soldiers and heavy weapons on the Ukrainian border, Putin may try to push Kiev and the West to reach a permanent solution, lift sanctions and officially recognize Crimea’s new status.
But he also has other motives. Moscow has always opposed NATO’s eastward expansion after 1990, especially its expansion to Poland and the Baltic Republic. He wants to reverse the forces and missiles that the coalition has recently deployed there. He hoped that the United States and Britain would stop selling weapons to Kiev and stop talking about Ukraine’s bright “Euro-Atlantic future”.
Putin is good at taking advantage of Russia’s relatively weak geostrategic position, and Putin also feels an opportunity. After similar US wishes for Syria, Crimea, and Georgia failed, the US failure in Afghanistan may convince him that another adventure in Ukraine will eventually yield positive dividends while avoiding serious military consequences.
Unfortunately, at this point, he may not be wrong.US President Joe Biden released a series of Stern warningHe said he would talk directly with the Russian leader soon. at the same time, He brags Last week, he prepared “the most comprehensive and meaningful series of measures that will make it difficult for Mr. Putin to continue to do what people worry about him.”
Biden’s words actually mean that if Russia attacks Ukraine, the United States plans to punish Russia economically and otherwise—but there will be no public military response. NATO will not ride to rescue; there will be no wider conflict. As Putin knows, Biden’s job is to end the war, not to start it. This is his promise to American voters. In any case, he focuses on China and Covid.
From this perspective, the crisis marks A very dangerous moment Ukraine-and the credibility of the Western Union. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss Chauvinistic nonsense Regarding defending the “free frontier”, it is actually a confession of incompetence. Putin may be about to commit another daytime robbery. And, really, who will stop him?
