starting from friday Season 1 SPF releasedfor GDP:
figure 1: Reported GDP (black bold), CBO (blue), WSJ-January (brown), SPF-February (red), IMF-January (light green triangle), GDPNow (2/8/2024) ( Sky blue squares), all expressed in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, using a logarithmic scale. Source: Bank of East Asia, Congressional Budget Office (February)“Wall Street Journal” (January), International Monetary Fund (January), Philadelphia Fedand Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2/8) and author's calculations.
Note the forecasts reported by CBO in February Budget and Economic Outlook Finalized based on available dates as of December 5th. SPF is based on responses received by February 6th.
The GDP level implied in the SPF is higher than that of the CBO or IMF. However, the average SPF forecast has been revised upward to take into account advance information for the fourth quarter of 2023 (information not included in CBO or IMF forecasts).That being said, the implied level of GDP GDP still exceeds The GDP implied by the SPF is higher (3.4% as of 2/8; the New York Fed's immediate forecast for 2/9 is 3.3%).
The average path is shown above. Expectations for negative quarterly growth have been significantly reduced, even continuing into the fourth quarter of 2024 (35% to 26%).
figure 2: Odds, in %, of negative growth in a given quarter, based on the November survey (blue) and the February 2024 survey (red). source: Philadelphia Fed.
