Ten years after the Arab Spring, Europe’s policy of disjointing the region caused the group to lose influence in its southern neighbors.
Researchers believe that the strategic importance of the Mediterranean region to the European Union means that if the Middle East and North Africa are unstable, then Europe will be unstable.
The civil wars in Syria and Libya, the trans-Mediterranean immigration emergency, and the rise of Islamic State and jihadist terrorist groups have restricted the EU’s economic and political support for the regional government.
“The most obvious change is the redefinition of the Arab socio-political space,” said Mohamed-Ali Adraoui, a member of the International Group on the Elimination of Violence (IPEV).
Adraoui added that another impact of the revolution is that “every social crisis opens the floodgates for the regime in power to face real, unfettered challenges.”
Immigration issues
Except for the establishment of anti-terrorism and border management partnerships with the security agencies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt, these countries have hardly considered the regional policies of EU member states except France and Italy, which have colonized most of the region. The connection of the times. Even so, the priorities of France and Italy have always been anti-terrorism and immigration control.
However, the EU’s focus on immigration control has allowed other international powers to gain influence in a region where many countries are far from democracy, but the economic and social differences that drove the Arab Spring still exist.
Riccardo Fabiani of the International Crisis Group believes that the EU’s internal divisions and its inward focus on immigration have reduced its influence in the MENA region.
Similarly, the disagreement between EU countries which faction supports in the Libyan civil war has given a greater military role to the former Turkey and Russia, and the latter Algeria, both of which encourage what Fabiani calls “decoupling.” “process.
Economic revival
The EU’s “Renewal Partnership with Southern Neighbourhoods” released in February pledged the EU to implement a 7 billion euros “Southern Neighbourhood Economic and Investment Plan”. However, little progress has been made in economic relations. Morocco and Tunisia are delaying EU plans to replace their alliance agreements with a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement (DCFTA) because many economists and scholars, especially in Tunisia, doubt their value for development needs.
Francis Gilles, a North African expert at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs, believes that the EU “needs more active policies if it wants to slow down the medium-term trend of decoupling between the two sides of the Western Mediterranean.”
Tarek Megerisi, a researcher at the European Commission on External Relations, believes that the EU should focus on the region to support Tunisia, which has maintained the democracy gained after the Arab Spring.
However, despite the EU’s attempts to emphasize its “European team”’s support for the COVAX vaccine program, the slow delivery of vaccines to the Middle East and North Africa has raised concerns that the pandemic will lead Europe to adopt a more closed approach.
Megerisi argued that the EU should provide financial support on the condition that the reform of Tunisia’s political system be completed, including a national dialogue to develop a plan to appoint judges to the Constitutional Court, and to upgrade Tunisia’s legal framework to reflect constitutional rights.
Since 2011, the EU has provided more than 2 billion euros in grants and 800 million euros in macro financial assistance to support its commitment to Tunisia’s transition to democracy. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has further hindered the high unemployment rate and years of sluggish economic performance.
“If the EU and major member states can make their contacts with Tunisia more concentrated and cohesive, Europe can help Tunisia become a successful democratic model in North Africa and a valuable partner for Europe in a highly competitive geopolitical region,” he added.
