Florida decelerates faster than the U.S. Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Condition Index (Discuss here postal) Just released today.
figure 1: Baumeister et al. The weekly economic status indicators for the United States (black) and Florida (red) are the percentage deviations from the national annualized trend growth rate. The NBER recession date is gray, from early February to the end of April. source: Weekly state-level economic status, Visit 8/6, NBER.
Week can see that the number of deaths per week is rising (as shown in the CDC table). Although Florida is decelerating faster than the country, it has been difficult to see a sharp decline in economic activity so far.
figure 2: The weekly number of Covid-19 deaths in Florida (blue, left scale), the actual number of excess deaths calculated by subtracting expected (cyan, left scale) and Florida WECI,% (red, right scale). source: The NBER recession date is gray, from early February to the end of April. Source: CDC, 8/4 interview, Weekly state-level economic status, Visit 8/6, NBER and the author’s calculations.
However, as well documented, The CDC integrated model has just increased its predicted number of deaths As more data emerges. These estimates and IHME forecasts are here.
source: IHME forecast on August 5, 2021, interviewed on August 6, 2021.
The number of reported deaths is predicted to peak on August 25, with approximately 146 deaths per day, or 1022 per week. The corresponding figure for excess deaths (which is generally considered more accurate) is 203 deaths per day, or 1423 per week. The number of deaths reported today (not the 7-day moving average) is 199; The current number of people hospitalized due to Covid-19 is 13,427, exceeding the previous peak of 12,282 recorded on July 23, 2020.
