Some relevance to mass shootings, update

Estimated return of mass shooting casualties and mass shootings by early July:

figure 1: Mass shooting casualties (dead + wounded), left scale (brown), and mass shooting incidents (blue bar, right scale). Shading in grey indicates that offensive weapons are prohibited. Shades of orange indicate the Trump administration. Source: Mother Jones database.

We can use regression analysis (negative binomial for casualties and Poisson for events) to analyze the correlation.

casualties_Ton = –1.72 – 0.72 prohibit_Ton + 1.21 trump card_Ton + 0.32 Biden_Ton +0.00001Popular music_Ton

adjust -R² = 0.022, SER = 32.7, NOBS = 391. Bold indicates significance at 10% msl, with standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).

Count regression (Poisson) for the number of mass shooting events:

event_Ton = –5.35 – 0.55 prohibit_Ton + 0.55 trump card_Ton + 0.392 Biden_Ton +0.00001Popular music_Ton

adjust -R² = 0.106, SER = 0.678, NOBS = 391. Bold indicates significance at 10% msl, with standard errors corrected for overdispersion (GLM option in EViews).

Populations for June and July are extrapolated using population data from the previous year (with log-first differences).