From the United States to the Arab League, there was an obvious coup in Sudan. The armed forces detained the prime minister on Monday (October 25). The world was shocked by the reaction.
Tensions between military and civilian figures have been going on for weeks since the former strongman Omar al-Bashir was deposed in 2019, and these tensions have been in a disturbing power sharing Under the agreement.
Poor Sudan did not start to make significant progress until this year, reversed decades of isolation and embarked on the road of much-needed investment and assistance. Analysts say its latest military coup jeopardizes this progress.
As Washington sheltered Islamic extremists including Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden in the 1990s, Washington imposed severe sanctions on the regime, and the country fell into the status of a Western untouchable under the leadership of Bashir.
After protesting in the streets against his iron-fisted rule, Bashir was eventually overthrown by his own army in April 2019.
An unstable military-civilian government began to share power later that year, only to be uprooted by Monday’s coup.
It was only in December last year that Sudan officially got rid of Washington’s title as a supporter of terrorism, opening the way for this year’s debt relief of more than 50 billion U.S. dollars and new aid from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Sudan is on the right path, said Alex de Waal, who has long been an expert on the country’s issues and executive director of the US-based World Peace Foundation.
U.S. suspension of aid
“It is in Sudan’s national interest to continue this slow path of reform when international aid has finally begun to reach the required scale,” Dewar said.
But the arrest of former international economist and civilian prime minister Abdullah Hamdok on Monday, as well as several of his ministers and civilian members of the country’s power-sharing committee, the military posed “serious risks” to Sudan. , A report from an international organization. The crisis group said.
Washington acted immediately. A few hours after the coup, it suspended its $700 million economic support program aimed at assisting Sudan’s democratic transition.
On Tuesday, the European Union threatened to suspend financial support if the Sudanese army does not immediately return civilians to power.
Human Resources/Vice President Statement @JosepBorrellF Regarding the current political situation in Sudan: “The European Union condemns the detention of Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok and other civilian leaders by the Sudanese army.”
Full statement 👉 https://t.co/8Rjeax3VQi
-European External Action Service-EEAS 🇪🇺 (@eu_eeas) October 25, 2021
Dewar said that if such threats are carried out—especially by Western donors and the World Bank—Sudan’s “progress to stabilize the economy, although long overdue, is still substantial and will collapse.”
Sudan is one of the least developed countries in the world. At the end of 2018, the price of bread tripled and triggered protests that led to Bashir’s expulsion by his own army.
The country has recently faced a shortage of medicines and other necessities, and the inflation rate is much higher than 300%.
After Bashir stepped down, the Gulf monarchy deposited an initial US$500 million with the central bank as part of a pledged US$3 billion aid package to maintain its influence in the country.
Troubled area
Dewar said that even if the military chief and coup leader General Abdul Fatah Burhan received further Arab financial support, it would not be able to compare with the support provided by international agencies and Western donors.
He added that the coup d’état “may cause Sudan to be extremely isolated and return to a period evaded by the rest of the world.”
Avoid but stay with other troubled countries in the region.
Ethiopia, a neighboring country in southeastern Sudan, fought a year-long war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
In the western wing of Sudan, Chad is still under the control of the army, despite threats from insurgents, and unrest occurred in the Sahel further west.
The ICG report stated: “The protracted struggle in Sudan will cause further disasters in the region.”
On Monday, the press department loyal to Hamdok stated that after the coup, soldiers “fired live ammunition at protesters outside the army headquarters.” According to the independent Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors, at least four demonstrators were killed and about 80 were injured.
Analysts worry that resistance to the coup may be brutally suppressed.
Dewar said that this does not only mean bloodshed in the capital Khartoum.
“The civil war in Darfur and Southern Kordofan is likely to be rekindled,” he said.
The ICG stated that Sudanese leaders who authorized the killing of protesters or refused to restore the transitional arrangements that led to civil rule should face sanctions from the African Union.
The researchers added that the Gulf monarchy and Egypt, which have the closest ties to Burhan and the Sudanese army, should urge restraint.
ICG stated: “They will not benefit from the instability in Sudan, which seems likely to happen after the military takeover.”
(Editing by Georgi Getoff)
