widthWhen in trouble, Boris Johnson fled to his comfort zone.Just like Brexit The catastrophe created him, so the chaos of Brexit may save him. Johnson may want to heat up in this cauldron to provoke retaliation from the European Union, and then he can blame it on Brussels and President Macron. But this is just a tempting distraction that can distract him.
This week, Johnson may have felt the hint of political death because his faithful media accused him of corruption allegations: not only the Daily Mail and The Sun, but even Express. Today, the editor of “The Spectator” denounced Johnson’s “court of chaos.”Johnson shamed Conservative MPs by voting Under the parliament with Sewage in the riverNow, they may not obey him so easily. He has used his tricks to betray the left and right parties in his party, leading his congressmen through 43 dazzling U-turns. His popularity reached a record low of -27, and his party has lost its lead. So where will he turn?
Johnson is not satisfied in any policy area. The NHS is boiling, and the cold winter and flu season has not yet arrived. The social care crisis hindered NHS beds (though didn’t Johnson say his taxes would solve this problem?). He did not win any honors under the leadership of G20 or Cop26. The shrinking cost of living puts pressure on families, and those who have lost universal credit suffer utter hardship. When the Prime Minister looked at the stupid obedients around the cabinet table, everyone faced a troubled department.
But Johnson will always have Brexit. After a month of fruitless negotiations, Lord Frost told the House of Lords yesterday that if the negotiations fail, suspending the Northern Ireland part of the Brexit agreement will be the “only option.” Frost said that the threshold for triggering the Article 16 moratorium has been reached-a requirement equivalent to declaring a trade war. After these tortuous negotiations, the Vice President of the European Commission Maroš Šefčovič warned in a speech to the EU ambassador, “Serious consequences”Ursula von der Leyen came out of the White House yesterday, and the President supported that if Britain overthrew the Northern Ireland Agreement, it would retaliate.
Frost likes to be provocative. It warned the EU to “keep calm” and “stay away from confrontation,” while accusing the EU of how shameless it is to protect “own interests” before “supporting the peace process and the people of Northern Ireland”.Peace Northern Ireland In Johnson’s view, this ratio is very low, but if he really causes real trouble, the responsibility will fall on him.
The trade war takes time to unfold. After Article 16 is triggered, there will be a one-month cooling-off period, followed by talks and more talks. It will take a full year to cancel the trade agreement. For a war game where PM will never be more than a day militant, this may feel like a pleasant long time. Johnson does not have many weapons, so he has thrown out a threat of self-harm, demanding to withdraw from the United European Union’s Horizon Research Program, costing the United Kingdom 15 billion pounds, which makes British scientists fear that they are afraid of being cut off by the mainstream.
Why will France politely stick to the timetable for the British trade war in the upcoming elections? They can legally slow down traffic in our ports through increasingly thorough truck inspections, leading to queues in half of the country. Perhaps Johnson wanted such retaliation to provoke anger towards France and the European Union, in order to re-form his old alliance, and Agincourt for the second brave Little Englander to oppose the huge EU team.
But this may become another policy landmine rather than a useful interference.If the supply chain is chaotic, people begin to associate stagnant wages and price increases with GDP loss 4% OBR blames Brexit? What if most people are just bored by the never-ending Brexit and they think it is “completed”?
The current polls provide insights here. What the UK Thinks of NatCen asked: “How do you think the government is doing in negotiating/handling the UK’s exit from the European Union?” In this regard, 57% said it was not good; 31% was good. “Do you think the overall impact of Brexit on the entire economy is good or bad?” 44% of the people here said it was not good, and 25% said it was good. “In hindsight, do you think it was right or wrong for the UK to vote to leave the EU?” This time it was 39% correct and 48% wrong. Of course, all of this may revolve in the patriotic anti-French clamor, but these figures show that people are becoming more aware of the false claims about Brexit.
If Johnson ignited the turmoil, Keir Starmer’s promise to “make Brexit work” may begin to receive attention. Against the backdrop of the chaotic Brexit, letting adults sit down and remove trade barriers seems to be an attractive prospect. As long as the UK is not below EU food and safety standards, we can make trade unimpeded. The “sovereign” options for setting our own rules still exist, but who wants to lower them? We can reach an agreement for our musicians and performers to sell their products on the African continent.
This requires light tiptoeing; any suggestion to rejoin the single market will cause Labor complainants to be accused of using a backdoor to Brexit. But over time, British companies overlooking the Irish Sea will be able to see the prosperity of Northern Ireland by staying in Ireland. In fact, the industry body Manufacturing NI told me that sales to the Republic have increased by 61%, and the order book is full of sales transferred from other places. British mainland. Johnson’s trade war is more and more like an opportunity for the Labour Party.
A smarter voice warned the Prime Minister to take a step back. If Article 16 is triggered, expert observers such as Anand Menon in the United Kingdom Europe, It is believed that a limited agreement can still be reached on certain trade barriers. However, it is legally impossible to overturn the agreement signed by the UK that the European Court of Justice will become the arbitrator of trade disputes. At this point, Johnson pushed himself to a desperate situation: Will he make a humiliating compromise, or fight for its political pleasure, no matter what damage the peace of Northern Ireland will be, no matter what the risks are? Big Mouth Frost will resume negotiations tomorrow.
