Record-breaking rains caused deadly floods in Germany and Germany Belgium Studies have shown that the climate crisis has increased the likelihood of July by nine times.
The study also showed that man-made global warming has increased the downpour of the region by 20%.This work reinforces the findings of this month’s landmark report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely “Clear” evidence Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the main reason for the deterioration of extreme weather.
In recent months, Western Europe has experienced devastating floods, China, Extreme Heatwave in the Northwestern United States with Forest fires in Russia, Greece, Turkey with America.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution Group said that as the temperature further rises, the western and central regions Europe Will face more and more extreme rains and floods. The organization previously found that without climate change, the recent “hot dome” in North America is almost impossible, and the heat wave in Siberia in 2020 and the Australian bushfires in 2019-20 are more likely to occur due to global warming.
“The huge human and economic losses caused by these floods are a clear reminder that countries around the world need to prepare for more extreme weather events, and we urgently need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent such risks from getting out of control,” University of Twente, Belgium Professor Maarten van Aalst said that he is also the director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center.The flood is Germany In Belgium, at least 222 people died and caused huge losses.
this New researchCarried out by Van Aalst and 38 other scientists, using meteorological measurements, high-resolution computer models and Peer-reviewed research methodsIt compares the frequency of extreme rainfall such as floods in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands in today’s hot climate with the frequency expected in a world without man-made climate change.
Studies have found that the climate crisis has increased the likelihood of extreme rainfall by 1.2 to 9 times, and such downpours in the region have now increased by 3% to 19%. The warmer air caused by global warming can hold 7% more water vapor for every 1 degree Celsius increase. The increased range of possibilities is due to the diversity of climate models used, but scientists believe that global warming has an impact.
The study focused on the areas around two particularly severely affected areas: the German area along the Ahr and Erft rivers, with 93 mm (3.66 inches) of rainfall in one day, and the Belgian Meuse area, with 106 mm of rainfall in two days. Scientists were unable to analyze the water level of the river, partly because some hydrological measuring stations were destroyed by floods.
Enno Nilson of the Federal Institute of Hydrology in Germany said that the peak water volume of the Ahr River is equivalent to the upper reaches of the Rhine: “We have a huge river rushing into a small valley.” Researchers estimate that in any year The probability of such extreme rainfall in a location is 0.25%. Van Ulster said: “This is a rare event, but we should be more and more prepared.”
Frederick Otto of Oxford University said: “These floods show us that even developed countries are not immune to the severe impact of the extreme weather we see, and it is well known that this impact will be affected by climate change. Deterioration.” “This is an urgent global challenge, and we need to step up to deal with it. The science is clear and has existed for many years.”
Professor Hayley Fowler of Newcastle University said that in addition to reducing emissions, the emergency alert system and infrastructure must also be improved to reduce casualties and costs.
Other studies in July found that catastrophic floods in Europe may become more frequent due to global warming.It uses high-resolution computer model estimation for the first time Slow-moving storms may become 14 times more common In the worst case, over land by the end of the century. The slower the storm moves, the more rain it dumps in a small area, and the greater the risk of severe flooding.
