The hot, fiery, and flooded present and future-the latest warning from the UN Climate Group
This is an excerpt from Andrew Revkin of Columbia Climate School on his new paper What dispatch to maintain At Bulletin.com. Read the rest here.
You may have heard that a climate science report has come out.
It will generate a thousand stories and messages in every language on the planet.
Most will focus on explanations and agendas, because these findings are not new. This United Nations-chartered Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is only responsible for reviewing published studies in its sixth comprehensive scientific assessment of global warming since its establishment in 1988.
The core conclusion is clear enough, without modification.Go to the list of IPCC Title statement For the key points, but here are three points refined:
- From “fire weather” to hurricane intensity, from heat waves to floods, from melting ice and snow to scorching droughts, most of what is happening on the earth has been strengthened by hundreds of billions of tons of climate-changing forces. . The amount of endothermic carbon dioxide and other pollutants emitted as a result of the “substantially accelerated” industrial development.
- Due to the long life span of carbon dioxide and heat that have been stored in the ocean and other factors, the next few centuries will face a dangerous mix of temperature rise, sea level rise and extreme events, but the speed and possibility of severely destructive worst-case scenarios still exist The function of human decision or continuous indecision to prevent the growth of our carbon footprint of absorbing heat in the atmosphere.
- In theory, if emissions can be reduced from today’s 40 billion tons per year (and still rising) to zero emissions, then there is still time to completely stop dangerous warming and prevent the most serious damage to humans and the world’s ecosystems. Impact.
The last point is still the key. Every step in reducing emissions is a step towards a safer relationship with the climate in the coming decades, including the containment of potentially severely destabilizing sudden or compound changes—”Monster behind the door,” to use an appropriate old saying by Princeton scientist Steve Pakara.
But this is where this report is,”Climate Change in 2021-Physics Fundamentals“Leave. Unfortunately, the outdated group structure established decades ago means two key additional parts of the assessment-about Warming impacts, vulnerability and adaptation options and Ways to slow down warming – Will not be out until February and March next year, and there will be finals Comprehensive report In September 2022…
And this is what is most urgently needed.
Click to go back to two other regular UN products-the eye-catching global “latest report”Emission gap” and”Adaptation gap“-You will see the deep holes behind many countries’ commitments to thrive on fossil fuel energy diets in the last century. (Remember, the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 1992 Basic Framework Convention on Climate Change on which it is based There is nothing in it.)
Read these posts to learn more about adaptability and reducing vulnerability is the top priority for quick returns:
The following is a more in-depth understanding of this latest “Physical Science Fundamentals” abstract.
Just like a photo that became the focus, the causes and consequences of climate change were only hinted at ten or two years ago, and now they have clearly become clear. The emerging clarity comes from the steady increase in computer power and model complexity, as well as the increase in the amount of evidence that reveals past climate dynamics. See here more time and how the analysis has been enhanced. The discoveries made by climate scientist Michael E. Mann and others in 1999 show the unique nature of the Earth’s current thermal spikes:
Read fresh Mann’s review in Time magazine Regarding the new report and his old findings.
But, to some extent, it is regrettable that in this wasted decades of indecision, all other observations of change gradually become clear. This”Large-scale geophysical experiment“What the scientist Roger Revell described in the 1950s has had enough time to work, so that more signals have appeared.
