more optimistic than wall street journal April survey average:
figure 1: GDP (bold black), Wall Street Journal April Survey (light blue), GDPNow (4/15) (red square), New York Fed (light green square), St. Louis Fed (blue inverted triangle ), IMF April 2024 WEO (yellow-green triangle) ), all in 2017 billion USD seasonally adjusted (SAAR) units. Data sources: BEA (via FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via FRED), International Monetary Fundand the author's calculations.
The following is from Wow, based on q4/q4. The forecast is based on exchange rate levels in February 2024.
Growth in the fourth quarter/fourth quarter of 2024 is a full 0.7 percentage point higher than the forecast in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook and 0.6 percentage points higher than the forecast in the January WEO update. Eurozone economic growth fell 0.1 percentage points from the January World Economic Outlook update. Although it was down 0.3 percentage points from half a year ago, China's growth prospects have not been revised down compared with January.
source: World Economic Outlook (April 2024).
from Wow (Page 13)
Global views can mask stark differences between countries. The recent outperformance of the United States is undoubtedly impressive and is a major driver of global growth, but it also reflects strong demand factors, including a fiscal stance inconsistent with long-term fiscal sustainability (see April 2024 Fiscal Monitor). This increases the short-term risks of a deflationary process, as well as the long-term fiscal and financial stability risks of the global economy, as it risks pushing up global financing costs. Something has to give.
The International Monetary Fund's estimate of the output gap in 2024 is +0.7 percentage points. (By comparison, the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate is essentially zero).
