Michigan (preliminarily) remained high, and the New York Fed raised interest rates by 40 basis points; both are consumer-based. The Cleveland Fed’s forecast is lower than in September.
figure 1: CPI year-on-year inflation (black), the expected median of the survey of professional forecasters (blue +), the expected median of the Michigan Consumer Survey (preliminary) (red), the median of the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectation Survey (light green), Cleveland Federal Reserve’s forecast (pink), from the average of the Coibion-Gorodnichenko company expectation survey [light blue squares]Source: BLS, University of Michigan through FRED and Investment Net, Reuters, Survey of professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Cleveland Federal Reserve with Kobion and Gorodnichenko.
The survey of professional forecasters will release its fourth quarter results on Monday.
As of today, the 5-year inflation balance (unadjusted) is 3.08%. If the gap between DKW’s adjusted indicators remains constant at 10/29 (and there is no reason why it should be), then the adjusted premium breakeven will be approximately 1.9%.
