Last night, the TX-06 special election took place. Narrowed down to two Republicans before that game, Lock the Democratic Party Even in the final vote. At the time, this was a good sign for Republicans, because compared with previous elections, the partisanship changes in the region were huge.
The vote rate in the last round was terrible, and finally, Jack Elzer defeats Susan Wright, His husband held the seat before his death. Although it is usually not worth noting that Republicans defeated Republicans, it is worth celebrating that Wright has the support of Donald Trump.
This is Henry Olson, the critic writer for the Washington Post. He is so excited.
Trump lost his first major test with a very low turnout in the ballot box. Not only was he unable to persuade the Republican Party to support Wright, but he was also unable to make people enthusiastic enough to vote. His influence is one mile wide and one inch deep.
17/x
-Henry Olsen (@henryolsenEPPC) July 28, 2021
Yes, it makes me extremely suspicious of Olson’s conclusion, it’s no secret anymore I am very optimistic about Ron DeSantis 2024, so my analysis does not come from a single support for Trump. On the contrary, I am studying the dynamics of the election and making reasonable judgments.
Take the question of voter turnout as an example. This is a very unique situation because it is a shutdown of the Republican Party. This means that voters can sit at home, knowing that the Republican Party will win their seats anyway. To be honest, unless there is a serious difference in policy between the candidates (which is really not here), I might also find a better way. The lower the voter turnout in any competition, the more uneven the results are usually. Is Trump unable to summon the army through his endorsement? Or the army just doesn’t care that the Republican Party will win a seat anyway?
In addition, how much impact is even expected from Trump’s support for Wright? It’s not like he went to a rally for her or said on Fox News to vote for her. This is such a unique game, two Republicans are competing against each other, and Trump’s support boils down to a published statement. How many people are paying attention? Ellzey is also good for him because he is a well-known figure in Texas politics. He is an excellent candidate with a good record.
The result of Trump’s “influence of one mile wide and one inch deep” seemed stupid and overly nervous to me last night. This is purely my analysis. I don’t care how much influence Donald Trump has on this point, but I think his critics desperately grabbed the life-saving straw in this situation. More importantly, I think they are preparing for disappointment.
The true test of Trump’s influence will come in 2022. Will his heavy participation in that election cycle help or harm the Republican party’s overall gains (or even cause overall losses)? When we have this data, of course, you may be able to make a reasonable argument about what Trump meant or not to the party at the time. But use TX-06 as a barometer to make a clear statement? I just don’t buy it.
