Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) weekly economic indicators and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) weekly trackers Weekly indicators for the period ending December 24 are released today.
figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock weekly economic index (blue), OECD weekly tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims US weekly economic conditions index plus 2% trend (green).Source: New York Fed via fred, OECD, WECIand the author’s calculations.
The weekly tracker, which fell into negative territory in the week ended Nov. 26, rebounded and is now flat with the WEI. A WEI reading of 1.4% for the week ending 12/24 could be interpreted as a 1.4% YoY growth rate if the 1.4% reading persisted throughout the quarter. The 1.6% reading in the OECD’s weekly tracking index can be interpreted as a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% as of December 24th.this Baumeister et al. A reading of 0.25% is interpreted as a growth rate of 0.25% above the long-term trend growth rate. US GDP growth averaged around 2% over the period 2000-19, so this implies an annual growth rate of 2.25% as of 12/24.
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