What will happen this season? – EURACTIV.com

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In this week’s version: Prospects for the geopolitical season, the plight of Afghan immigration, and the European military plight.

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After spending longer than usual summer vacations during EU political events in Brussels (thanks to COVID-19), this fall’s foreign policy agenda is expected to be busier than ever.

Here are some key dates and announcements you should pay attention to:

The EU formulated a long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy in April, which may herald a radical change in the EU’s way of looking at regions outside China from a geostrategic perspective in the future.

Although the EU is unlikely to be too involved in regional disputes and quarrels, it will try to cooperate with “like-minded” countries in the region and strengthen “democratic values” and international law.Expect more September 14.

In addition, the EU is expected to consider the fate of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI). Has been suspended this year, And discuss whether to restart the EU——China Summit.

The European Commission proposed a new agreement to resolve this issue in September last year, but has not yet reached a final agreement.With the chaos in Afghanistan, immigration is a problem Will not disappear. Is the current concern about the recurrence of the European immigration wave enough to create pressure?

European Commission Immigration Follow-up Program, to be launched soon September 29, Which aims to include the EU’s action plan against immigrant smuggling and an assessment of the entire EU immigrant countries.

A strategic document that is more easily overlooked will appear before us October 5, When the European Commission prepares to announce the long-awaited Arctic policy.

Experts and regional stakeholders were surprised after the EU executive’s 2020 work plan did not mention a plan to update the EU’s position on the Arctic issue.

As the United States and Russia are also strengthening the Arctic security narrative, making the region vulnerable to geopolitical competition, the EU’s preference for human security methods may not be fully established.

The expansion of the EU’s hot potato may become even more hot.Slovenia will organize an informal Western Balkan summit with EU and regional leaders October 6.

The vaccine diplomacy of China and Russia and the disillusionment of the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic and Series of unofficial diplomatic notes The proposed changes to the Balkans’ borders shook the region and raised concerns about the renewed ethnic tensions in the southeastern corner of Europe.

Due to ongoing disputes over common history, national identity and language, Bulgaria may not take any quick action to block North Macedonia’s accession negotiations, because Bulgaria may hold its third general election in less than a year.

In the stalemate in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, the atmosphere was tense and there was no progress.As part of the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, the leaders of the two negotiating teams may be held in Brussels September 7-8.

For a long time, Western diplomats in the European Union and other regions have been paying close attention to China’s “One Belt One Road” Initiative (BRI), an ambitious infrastructure project that can be traced back to the ancient Silk Road, which contains a large number of development and investment plans. , Extending from East Asia to Europe and other regions.

The member states signed an anti-plan for the “Belt and Road” initiative in July, titled “Connecting Europe to the World”, but Provide very few substances Regarding Europe’s push and how it differentiates itself from the practices of the United States and China.Pay attention to the surroundings October 13 More.

Eastern Partnership Area Keep burning For a long time, it became unstable due to the ongoing uncertainty caused by the Armenian-Azerbaijan War, the political crisis in Georgia, and the war in eastern Ukraine.

Belarus announced in July Suspended participation in the initiative, Brussels condemned the move as “another step backwards.” Also pay attention to more sanctions policy updates.

At the Eastern Partnership Summit in Brussels this year December 15th, Newly established ‘Related Trio’ -Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova-may push the EU to make more commitments to its country’s future path. This also involves a series of measures for practical cooperation in joint infrastructure projects and a range of policy areas from trade, energy to national defense.

On the other hand, Ukraine already has a chance October 12, At the EU-Ukraine summit, the issue of North Stream 2 and natural gas safety was raised, and it may ask for more support in the ongoing war in the east of the country.

Gymnastics time | Unsurprisingly, this week’s informal meeting of EU foreign ministers and defense ministers in Brdo, Slovenia, did cast a shadow over Afghanistan.

Learn a lesson? | Slovenia’s Defense Minister Matej Tonin told EURACTIV that if the EU wants to become a more reliable security provider and global participant, it needs to avoid past mistakes and develop a reliable military intervention force that can maintain stability in our neighboring countries. In an exclusive interview on the eve of the conference.

Military dilemma | In fact, in the context of Afghanistan, EU officials are again considering the establishment of a 5,000-strong rapid military response force to intervene in the early stages of the international crisis.

Therefore, the EU Defense Minister discussed proposals for potential new capabilities and the possibility of temporary military cooperation among interested EU member states. But not everyone is on board.

For a long time, analysts have urged the EU to assume responsibility for defense, but as a senior defense expert asked: If the EU had this capability before the fall of Kabul, would it use it? Majority (clear, but not representative) Do not believe.

Have you heard of it before?

Immigration dilemma | Similarly, before Gymnich, the European Union expressed its determination to prevent the uncontrolled large-scale flow of illegal immigrants from Afghanistan in the following ways. Increase aid to neighboring countries in the regionThe five-hour emergency meeting of EU interior ministers ended.However, they There was no discussion of the amount or the number of resettlers.

Afghan officials see the strategy in the nearby area as a short-term solution.

“In the long run, the only thing that helps stop the wave of immigration is to ensure that Afghanistan has a safe place where all Afghans can live without fear of Taliban violence,” a member of the Afghan parliament told EURACTIV on condition of anonymity. .

The politician added that if the Taliban are allowed to use fear, intimidation and violence to impose their will and cruel forms of governance on all Afghans, “then the immigration crisis will only continue to worsen”.

“The EU must continue to pay attention to the needs of the Afghan people, not just because it makes headlines, but in the coming weeks, months and years,” he said.

“The Afghan people are experiencing a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. They desperately need food, shelter and medical support from the European Union.”

Key issues | However, the most critical issue for Afghan citizens is to avoid recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of their country.

EU Chief Diplomat Joseph Borrell told reporters that in order to help the Afghan people, especially the most vulnerable and those working for the EU, this “needs to contact the Taliban”, but emphasized This does not mean admitting.

“We don’t expect the EU to endow the Taliban regime with legitimacy-which means that the Taliban government will not be recognized unless independent observers can verify on the ground that they have implemented an inclusive and participatory system,” said a member of the Afghan parliament.

“Officials are elected and respect international norms and the rights of all Afghan citizens, especially women, minorities and those who oppose Taliban rule,” he added.

Therefore, it is convenient for EU foreign ministers to reach an agreement Five benchmarks for Afghanistan got engaged.

EU in the world

Support request | In other news, Tunisian democrats Need more support from the EU Ennahdha party official and former youth and sports minister Ahmed Gaaloul (Ahmed Gaaloul) said that as a North African country, European countries will face several months of presidential decree government term.

Last week, President Said announced a suspension for the second month. Ennahdha and many other political parties called the move unconstitutional and a coup.

Vaccine Center | The EU will provide Financial support for vaccine production On the African continent, its specific goal is to supply products to Africa, as it seeks to counter allegations of “vaccine nationalism.”

Transatlantic connection

Trade optimism | EU Trade Director Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday that he has become more optimistic that the EU can resolve its dispute with Washington over US steel and aluminum import tariffs.

Eastbrovskys recalled that one of the joint conclusions of the EU-US summit in June was to try to resolve this issue before the end of the year.

He said at a meeting of Brussels think tank Bruegel: “After the EU-US summit, I am more optimistic that a solution will be found, so we are now in close contact with relevant departments of the US government.”

Eurasian Digest