The blueprint of the so-called strategic compass seen by EURACTIV, the EU’s upcoming military strategy document, will be formally submitted to the EU’s foreign minister next Monday (November 15).
Although it portrays the threats facing the EU for the first time, it also covers crisis management, resilience, capacity development, and partnerships, and aims to “develop a common strategic vision for the EU’s security and defense in the next 5-10 years.” year”.
EU leaders may receive the revised version in December, and the final document is scheduled to be approved during France’s presidency of the Council of the European Union in March next year.
Threat assessment
Developed by the European Union’s Foreign Service (EEAS) and national security agencies, it is the first part of the EU’s new military blueprint, which aims to cover the security risks and trends of the entire group and the world.
In addition to the descriptive list of regional threats facing the EU, Russia and China dominate the 28-page document.
The draft stated that Russia’s “actions in our common neighbourhood and other regions contradict the EU’s vision of the world and its interests”, but added that “the EU strategy aims to involve Russia in specific issues” such as climate issues.
Several EU diplomats contacted by EURACTIV stated that the threat from Moscow should be better explained by including military threats and occupation, weaponized energy supply and hybrid operations, and they plan to propose amendments.
According to the draft, China is a “partner, economic competitor, and systemic competitor”, “increasingly involved and involved in regional tensions.”
“Despite China’s growing self-confidence, we will continue to cooperate in areas of common interest such as combating piracy, climate and security,” the draft pointed out.
However, when referring to differences within member states on how best to deal with Beijing, it warned that this would “need strong unity among the EU.”
According to the blueprint, national intelligence agencies will be required to review EU threat analysis at a frequency “at least once every 5 years, beginning in 2025, or if the changing strategy and security environment requires it.”
EU rapid deployment capability
One of the most controversial blueprint proposals is to establish a joint military intervention force called the “EU Rapid Deployment Capability” by 2025, which “allows the rapid deployment of modular forces of up to 5,000 soldiers, including land, air and sea. component”.
After the Afghanistan crisis, EU member states Discussed ideas For the initial entry into force and the possibility of temporary military cooperation between interested EU member states.
According to the draft, this force aims to “respond to imminent threats or respond quickly to crisis situations, such as rescue and evacuation missions or stable operations in hostile environments.”
The capabilities of the troops will be based on “combat scenarios,” but the blueprint has not yet determined who will define them.
The proposal stated that it should include “substantially modified EU battle groups and other military forces and capabilities of member states,” adding that it would include regular joint live exercises starting in 2023.
Command and control will be the responsibility of a pre-determined national operations headquarters or an agency within the European Union Military Staff (EUMS).
Some EU diplomats contacted by EURACTIV stated that they were concerned about “adding more new tools without taking advantage of the potential of existing tools”.
Due to funding issues and unwillingness to deploy, the EU’s existing battle groups have never been used.
The unanimous question?
So far, any such action requires the unanimous consent of all member states, which has proven to be a controversial issue in crisis situations.
In order to avoid a slow decision-making process, the draft proposes “more flexible decision-making arrangements” and “expanding the scope of common costs (including exercise costs) to promote the rapid deployment of this capability.”
This also includes the use of constructive abstentions “to foster a willing and capable European-led alliance.”
By 2023, the idea is to specify how Article 44 of the EU Treaty will allow a group of member states to plan and perform tasks or actions within the framework of the EU.
An Eastern European diplomat told EURACTIV that some countries in the region are willing to discuss improving decision-making procedures, but “unanimity still needs to be a guiding principle.”
NATO and other regions
The EU’s strategic autonomy to act more independently in its foreign and security policies has only appeared once in the 28-page blueprint.
The draft states: “The recent geopolitical changes remind us that the EU urgently needs to take action in its neighboring countries and other regions, cooperate with partners as much as possible, and act alone when necessary, so as to take more responsibility for its own security.”
This is described as “the ability to work with partners to maintain their values and interests.”
Regarding EU-NATO relations, it mentioned the new EU-NATO Joint Declaration to be submitted before the end of the year as a key guide for future cooperation.
It also addresses the concerns of most Eastern European EU member states that regard the alliance as their main security provider by committing to closer cooperation in crisis management operations, military capability development, exercises, military mobility, and emerging threats. .
By 2022, the EU also plans to advance the special security and defense dialogue reached with the United States at the June joint summit held earlier this year.
The draft proposal also states that the EU remains “open to security and defense contacts with the United Kingdom,” and promised to strengthen dialogue with the western Balkans, eastern and southern neighbors, the Indo-Pacific, and Latin America.
It is worth noting that this strategy will allow the European Union to expand its maritime presence in regions of interest, starting from the Indo-Pacific region. This will include more frequent EU port calls and patrols as well as cooperation with regional partners Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. On-site maritime exercises.
More tools and investments
The document includes a series of new methods and means to increase resilience to mixed threats, including a commitment to create an EU rapid mixed response team and ensure cyber deterrence.
“We must be able to respond quickly to cyber attacks,” the document pointed out when referring to the use of the EU’s cyber diplomacy toolbox, which included sanctions on external participants in malicious cyber activities.
By the end of 2023, the EU will adopt a strategy to deal with risks and incidents in the space sector and threats to the EU’s space program.
The blueprint also mentions a Recent assessment This has prompted EU governments to focus on “six next-generation capabilities” such as new main battle tanks (MBT), patrol ships, space defenses, air systems, and enhanced military mobility.
It also pointed out that the defense budget should increase in the next few years, but did not require specific commitments.
However, it pointed out that member states should work to increase their financial commitments to EU cooperative defense programs (such as the European Defense Fund) in the next EU budget after 2027.
The proposal also promises to establish a defense innovation center within the European Defense Agency by 2022.
However, an EU diplomat told EURACTIV when talking about the timetable for most of the proposals contained in the blueprint, and surprisingly, many of these proposals are quite short-term.
The diplomat said: “It surprises me that we have always believed that the strategy should look forward ten years, but most of the proposals I have seen have a target date of 2025.”
“What we haven’t achieved in decades should happen now in a few years-it seems a bit strange to me,” he added.
