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Where to find a country's business cycle dates [updated]


(roughly) using the Burns-Mitchell-NBER method. The list is not complete and emphasis is placed on lists updated over time by institutions, companies, or other organizations. (Post updated June 12, 2021)

For a single economy:

Off-road:

The methodologies are different, and the degree to which input and input sequences are judged is also different; some observations in this post.exist Chin and Cook (2015) and Chin and Ferrara (2024), we rely on the ECRI chronology.There are many other methods, including the U.S. Jim Hamilton's time series approach applied to GDP [latest announcement].

By the way, here are the six key macro indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (as of February 2, 2024, with monthly frequency):

figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls including baseline revisions (bold dark blue), using implied levels of Bloomberg consensus as of February 1 and December 2023 NFP (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial Production (red), China’s personal income excluding current transfers in 2017$ (bold green), Manufacturing and trade sales in 2017$ (black), Consumption$ in 2017 (light blue), and Monthly GDP $ (pink), GDP, third release (blue bar), Q1 2024 GDPNow as of February 1 (lilac box), all logarithms normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary benchmarksFederal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd Edition, contains comprehensive revisions, S&P Global Market Insights (Nigerian macroeconomic consultant, IHS Markit) (2/1/Released in 2024) and the author's calculations.

Any clues to other institutional/organizational chronologies are welcome.

Other personal research discussed on Econbrowser:



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